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It's time for another betting prediction and pick inside UFC 317 as we turn attention towards this ranked matchup in the Women's Flyweight (125) Division. Brazil's No. 8-ranked Viviane Araujo will take on Fight Ready MMA's No. 10-ranked Tracy Cortez in what should be a high-level bout. Check the UFC odds series for our Araujo-Cortez prediction and pick.
Viviane Araujo (13-6) has gone 7-5 since entering the UFC in 2019. She's fought both former and future champions during her time with the promotion and while she's just 2-3 over her last five fights, those two wins have come during her three most recent bouts. Araujo comes in the betting underdog standing 5-foot-4 with a 68-inch reach.
Tracy Cortez (11-2) has gone 5-1 inside the UFC since 2019. She rode an impressive 11-fight winning streak dating back to 2017 with wins in each of her first five UFC fights, but dropped her first bout to Rose Namajunas during her most recent appearance. She'll look to get one back as the betting favorite here. Cortez stands 5-foot-5 with a 65.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 317 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 317 Odds: Viviane Araujo-Tracy Cortez Odds
Viviane Araujo: +205
Tracy Cortez: -250
Over 2.5 rounds: -720
Under 2.5 rounds: +450
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Why Viviane Araujo Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Karine Silva – U DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Viviane Araujo had her best performance in recent memory with a fantastic unanimous decision victory over Karine Silva as the +240 betting underdog. She was tasked with a strong up-and-coming fighter in the division and rose to the occasion, proving that she still has a ton of gas left in the tank at 38 years old. Still, she'll have to be on top of her game during this fight if she wants to match the high energy of Cortez as an opponent.
Viviane Araujo certainly has the finishing upside and has done so throughout her early career, but she's fought to a decision in 11 of her 12 UFC appearances. She's much more focused on forcing opponents into bad positions and controlling the fight from there, so expect her to take this fight to the ground where she's most comfortable.
Araujo has a solid takedown accuracy of 43%, but her defense is even more impressive at 80%, so expect her to be the one controlling where this fight takes place. We've seen her withstand significant damage in the past, but her chin is proven and it'll take a herculean effort from Cortez to get Araujo out of there early.
Why Tracy Cortez Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Rose Namajunas – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 1 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Tracy Cortez came up just short during her fight against Rose Namajunas, suffering her first MMA loss since 2017 and breaking an 11-fight unbeaten streak. She's an extremely emotional fighter and it's certain that she'll only grow from the loss and learn from her mistakes. She has age and athleticism on her side during this matchup and we can expect high-energy output from her during all three rounds.
While she's not much of a finisher, Tracy Cortez does a great job of wearing her opponents down and eventually changing the trajectory of a fight. She's very strong with her takedown defense and does a great job of defending herself from submission attempts with just one submission loss on her record.
To win this fight, Tracy Cortez will have to remain in perpetual motion and consistently land her jab to disrupt Araujo from closing the distance. Tracy Cortez has grown significantly as a talented boxer, so we should see some of that Mexican fighting style come to light if she's down at any point of this fight.
Final Viviane Araujo-Tracy Cortez Prediction & Pick
We'll have another exciting matchup on the women's side as both fighters are looking to slowly climb up the rankings and contend for a title shot. Viviane Araujo has been in this spot before and she's intent on building upon her last winning performance against a young competitor. Tracy Cortez, on the other hand, can be considered a veteran of this division and will have something to say with her improved boxing and ability to take the fight to the ground.
While Viviane Araujo poses a tough challenge, I think the betting odds are accurate during this matchup as Tracy Cortez simply has more ways to control the fight. She can do so with her active striking and she's not one to stand back and allow opponents to find shots on her.
For our final prediction, we'll roll with the betting favorite in Tracy Cortez to win this fight with a solid mixed of clinch fighting, striking, and defensive grappling if the situation calls for it.
Final Viviane Araujo-Tracy Cortez Prediction & Pick: Tracy Cortez (-250)
