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UFC 317: Ilia Topuria versus Charles Oliveira continues on the main card with the lightweight championship main event between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira. Check out our UFC odds series for our Topuria-Oliveira prediction and pick.
Ilia Topuria (16-0) enters UFC 317 for the vacant lightweight title after a spectacular run at featherweight, where he knocked out Alexander Volkanovski to claim the belt, then became the first to KO Max Holloway in the third round at UFC 308. Now, Topuria aims for two-division glory against Charles Oliveira this Saturday.
Charles Oliveira (35-10, 1 NC) enters UFC 317 after a gritty five-round unanimous decision win over Michael Chandler at UFC 309, reclaiming momentum following his loss to Arman Tsarukyan. Before that, Oliveira’s finishing prowess remained on display, as he extended his UFC records for most submissions and finishes. Now, Oliveira seeks two-time gold against Ilia Topuria this Saturday.
Here are the UFC 317 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 317 Odds: Ilia Topuria-Charles Oliveira Odds
Ilia Topuria: -455
Charles Oliveira: +350
Over 1.5 rounds: -145
Under 1.5 rounds: +114
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Why Ilia Topuria Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Thomas Petersen – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 6 (4 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Ilia Topuria is primed to become the new undisputed lightweight champion at UFC 317, thanks to his devastating knockout power, elite striking, and surging confidence after back-to-back finishes of Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway to become and defend the featherweight title. Topuria has repeatedly shown he can deliver on bold predictions, and he enters this bout believing Oliveira’s aggressive style will play directly into his hands.
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Topuria’s ability to close the distance and land fight-ending combinations has set him apart, and he’s facing an opponent in Oliveira who is notoriously hittable, having been dropped in multiple recent title fights. While Oliveira’s submission game is always a threat, Topuria’s own grappling is underrated, and he’s shown composure when facing high-level grapplers. The move up to lightweight has only enhanced Topuria’s power and stamina, as he’s stated he finally feels 100 percent without the strain of a harsh weight cut.
With Oliveira’s tendency to march forward, Topuria expects to capitalize on openings early, predicting a first-round knockout and insisting he’s better everywhere the fight goes. Given his momentum, finishing ability, and physical prime, Topuria is well-positioned to make history and claim gold in a second division this Saturday.
Why Charles Oliveira Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Jamal Pogues – DEC
- Last 5: 4-0
- Finishes: 3 (3 KO/TKO)
Charles Oliveira has the skills and experience to reclaim the undisputed lightweight title at UFC 317 against Ilia Topuria. Oliveira is the UFC’s all-time leader in both finishes and submissions, and his ability to pressure opponents into mistakes is unmatched. He constantly moves forward, mixing front kicks, elbows, and a surprisingly powerful boxing game to disrupt his rivals’ rhythm.
While Topuria’s knockout power is a serious threat, Oliveira has repeatedly shown resilience, often recovering from knockdowns to secure submissions or rally for dramatic wins. His jiu-jitsu is world-class, and if the fight hits the mat, Oliveira’s slick transitions and submission arsenal could overwhelm Topuria, who has never faced a grappler of Oliveira’s caliber at lightweight. Oliveira’s pace and aggression are designed to force exchanges and create chaos, which he thrives in, especially when he can draw opponents into scrambles or clinch battles.
Oliveira’s experience in five-round wars and championship fights also gives him an edge in composure and adaptability. If he can survive Topuria’s early storm, Oliveira’s pressure and finishing instincts could turn the tide as the fight progresses. Expect Oliveira to use his relentless offense and submission threat to either secure a late finish or outwork Topuria over five rounds, becoming a two-time undisputed lightweight champion.
Final Ilia Topuria-Charles Oliveira Prediction & Pick
Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira for the vacant lightweight championship promises a high-octane clash from the opening bell. Topuria will look to assert himself early, pressing forward with sharp, powerful combinations. His speed and precision should find openings in Oliveira’s defense, which has been vulnerable to knockdowns in past fights.
As Oliveira tries to respond with his trademark aggression and submission threats, Topuria’s composure and underrated grappling will allow him to avoid danger on the mat and keep the fight standing. Oliveira’s willingness to engage in wild exchanges could play into Topuria’s hands, as the undefeated contender thrives in chaos and has shown the ability to finish even the most durable opponents.
Expect Topuria to dictate the pace, landing crisp counters as Oliveira moves forward. If Oliveira attempts takedowns, Topuria’s balance and scrambling should keep him upright or allow quick escapes. Ultimately, Topuria’s power, timing, and confidence will be the difference. He’s likely to catch Oliveira early, scoring a knockdown and following up with a barrage of strikes to secure a first or second-round TKO.
Ilia Topuria becomes the new undisputed lightweight champion, cementing his place as one of the sport’s most dangerous finishers and a two-division UFC titleholder.
Final Ilia Topuria-Charles Oliveira Prediction & Pick: Ilia Topuria To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (-175), Under 1.5 rounds (+114)
