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We're back with another betting prediction and pick for UFC 317 as the Early Prelims continue with this next bout in the Heavyweight Division. Jhonata Diniz of Brazil will take on the debuting Alvin Hines from Minnesota. Check the UFC odds series for our Diniz-Hines prediction and pick.
Jhonata Diniz (8-1) will be making his fourth walk to the UFC octagon with a 2-1 record thus far. After a strong 2-0 start, he dropped his most recent bout to Marcin Tybura via doctor's stoppage. It was a disappointing end, but he'll look to bounce back stronger as the significant betting favorite here. Diniz stands 6-foot-4 with a 79.5-inch reach.
Alvin Hines (7-0) will be making his UFC debut on Saturday with a flawless MMA record up to this point. He notched a perfect 5-0 record under LFA in just a year of action, so this call-up to the big leagues was coming sooner rather than later for Hines. He stands 6-foot-2 with a 74-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 317 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 317 Odds: Jhonata Diniz-Alvin Hines Odds
Jhonata Diniz: -325
Alvin Hines: +260
Over 1.5 rounds: -120
Under 1.5 rounds: -110
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Why Jhonata Diniz Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Marcin Tybura – TKO (doctor's stoppage, R2)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO
Jhonata Diniz impressed with back-to-back victories over Austen Lane and Karl Williams, but it was clear he began to struggle when tasked with an experienced kickboxer like Marcin Tybura opposite of him. Diniz can rest easy knowing his upcoming opponent is also relatively inexperienced, which he's been able to flourish against in the past.
To be successful here, Jhonata Diniz will have to establish himself in the striking exchanges early and earn the respect of his opponent. Hines is a heavy hitter and can deal serious damage from the pocket, but Diniz has shown us a solid ability to move out of range and compose himself under fire. Look for him to use a ton of feints as he looks to bait Hines into over-extending where he can land his offense.
Diniz will also have to improve his defense where he's allowed 2.96 significant strikes landed on him per minute. While this number is fewer than what he's dishing out, he'll need to be conscious of the power coming back his way from Hines.
Why Alvin Hines Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Billy Ray Valdez – KO (high kick, R3)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Alvin Hines is making his UFC debut in this fight after filling in for Justin Tafa, who withdrew from the bout about two weeks ago. Hines is a 5-0 prospect from LFA, winning three of those fights by knockout, one by submission, and one by unanimous decision. He's very well-rounded when it comes to both his striking and grappling, oftentimes overpowering his opponents and imposing his physicality upon them.
Hines also has a very strong chin and while he has yet to be finished in his MMA career, he hasn't necessarily even come close to getting knocked out. Hines' clearest path to victory during this fight will be forcing Diniz onto his back and pressuring from. the top while landing his concussive ground-and-pound shots.
Four of Hines' professional wins can be attributed to strikes from top mount position, so he's quickly the favorite in this fight if he can manage to force it there. Diniz flaunts a 69% takedown defense up to this point, but we saw him struggled somewhat during his last bout against Tybura – look for Hines to force the wrestling as he takes this fight where he has the advantage.
Final Jhonata Diniz-Alvin Hines Prediction & Pick
This should be an exciting matchup between two heavyweights that can shut the lights out in an instant. Jhonata Diniz is the much more fluid boxer of the two and he'll be looking to keep this fight at a comfortable range where he can get his shots off. Alvin Hines is a bit more inexperienced at the highest level, but his raw skill set has all the indicators that he can be successful in the UFC.
In terms of where this fight will take place, Alvin Hines certainly has a small advantage in being able to take this fight to the ground. He has unique jiu jitsu grappling for such a big heavyweight and if he's able to land in top position during a chaotic scramble, he certainly has a chance to end this fight with strikes from mount or a creative submission.
Still, Diniz will give him a very tough look on the feet and should be able to control this fight with his striking range. However, we like the finishing ability from Hines and will take a chance given his lopsided underdog betting line.
Final Jhonata Diniz-Alvin Hines Prediction & Pick: Alvin Hines (+260)
