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The time has finally come for the Co-Main Event at UFC 317 as we'll bring you a betting prediction and pick for the first of two title fights atop this card. Champion Alexandre Pantoja of Brazil will take on No. 4 contender Kai Kara-France of New Zealand in a battle for the Flyweight Championship. Check the UFC odds series for our Pantoja-Kara-France prediction and pick.
Alexandre Pantoja (29-5) has gone 13-3 inside the UFC since 2017 en route to becoming champion. After taking the belt from longtime champ Brandon Moreno, he's now defended his title on three occasions against top competition. He'll look for his eighth-straight win as the rightful favorite here. Pantoja stands 5-foot-5 with a 67-inch reach.
Kai Kara-France (25-11) comes into this bout with an 8-4 UFC record since 2018. Following three-straight wins, he dropped back-to-back fights to Brandon Moreno and Amir Albazi. Still, he bounced back with a win over Steve Erceg most recently and will exact the first title shot of his career on Saturday. Kara-France stands 5-foot-4 with a 69-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 317 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 317 Odds: Alexandre Pantoja-Kai Kara-France Odds
Alexandre Pantoja: -245
Kai Kara-France: +200
Over 3.5 rounds: -175
Under 3.5 rounds: +135
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Why Alexandre Pantoja Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Kai Asakura – SUB (rear naked choke, R2)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 11 SUB
Alexandre Pantoja last took care of rising star Kai Asakura in his most recent title defense, breaking his opponent down early and eventually moving towards a finishing submission. In his third title defense, Pantoja continues to look better each time out and it's clear holding the championship belt has taken his aura of confidence to a whole other level. Look for him to look even sharper during this matchup against a striker.
Pantoja has massively improved his striking technique since entering the UFC and although he's still prone to getting hit, his chin is extremely solid and can withstand the damage. Still, the great equalizer is his lethal jiu jitsu and if he's able to tie opponents up in his grip, he's almost always going to find the submission win in the end.
To win this fight, Pantoja just has to be himself and continue improving his game with each passing fight. We still have yet to see him plateau in terms of his aggression, so expect much of the same as he looks to be first in the exchanges. If this fight hits the ground, expect Pantoja to be in full control of his opponent and threatening to end the bout.
Why Kai Kara-France Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Steve Erceg – TKO (right cross, R1)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 12 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Kai Kara-France looked to be in his best form yet with his latest win over Steve Erceg and after his last two wins went towards a decision, he reminded opponents of his power in shutting the lights out quickly for Erceg. Kara-France is on his own path of improvement and he's expecting the champion to see some fatigue while he's just beginning to hit his prime.
Kara-France does everything well from a technical standpoint and his defense has been about as solid as it can be up to this point. Still, during his previous losses, he made dire mistakes and left himself open to the finish from opponents, so he'll certainly need to be mistake-free against a killer like Pantoja. Look for Kara-France to be the early dictator in the fight pace throughout the opening rounds.
The challenger also has experience in a five-round environment, so it'll be interesting to see how his game plan changes knowing Pantoja will welcome five rounds of action. Kara-France is extremely fit and his cardio poses a serious threat to the champ, so don't be surprised if he tries to push a frantic pace and methodically take Pantoja apart from a striking standpoint.
Final Alexandre Pantoja-Kai Kara-France Prediction & Pick
This will be a great title fight thanks to both men earning their spot. Alexandre Pantoja continues to look better with each passing title defense while Kara-France's recent performances indicate he's fully in his prime and ready for this opportunity.
I think Kai Kara-France will have a solid chance to change the course of this fight during rounds 3, 4, and 5. However, Alexandre Pantoja is very dangerous during the opening minutes and could stand to compromise Kara-France's defense early on.
I think we see a back-and-forth bout for the entirety of this fight, but I think the threats from Pantoja will be too much for Kara-France to handle over five rounds. As the champion grows stronger and continues to refine his skills, I think his grappling will be the ultimate difference in securing him this win.
Final Alexandre Pantoja-Kai Kara-France Prediction & Pick: Alexandre Pantoja (-245)
