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One of the greatest female boxers of all time returns to the ring when Holly Holm (33-2-3) faces Yolanda Vega (10-0). It is time to continue our boxing odds series with a Holly Holm-Yolanda Vega prediction and pick.
Holm, 43, returns to boxing after a 12-year-long layoff, during which she focused solely on her MMA career. Holm is known among modern fans as a mainstay of the UFC bantamweight division, but before stepping into the Octagon, she put together a Hall of Fame career in the ring. The former three-division world champion has not competed since beating Mary McGee in 2013. She last fought in MMA when she was submitted by Kayla Harrison at UFC 300.
Vega, 30, is nowhere near the prestige of Holm but is a rising, undefeated contender seeking the signature moment to launch her career. Vega, who has yet to fight outside of Mexico, last beat Claudia Lopez by unanimous decision in March. While her previous lack of competition makes Holm a significant step up, Vega has dominated all 10 of her fights to date.
Here are the Holly Holm-Yolanda Vega odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Boxing Odds: Holly Holm-Yolanda Vega Odds
Holly Holm: -1000
Yolanda Vega: +520
Over 7.5 Rounds:
Under 7.5 Rounds:
How to Watch Holly Holm vs. Yolanda Vega
Time: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Fight ring walk time (estimated): 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
TV/Stream: DAZN PPV
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Why Holly Holm Will Win
Holm has not stepped into the squared circle since 2013, but she is still one of the greatest female boxers of all time. Her MMA career was an up-and-down roller coaster ride, but Holm now returns to her roots in boxing, where she suffered just two losses in her 38-fight career.
There are concerns about Holm's age, but the matchup seems tailor-made for her to shake off the rust and get back in the win column. Holm's two career losses both came by knockout, while Vega has just one knockout win in her 10 fights. Vega's lone knockout came in the fourth round against a 0-6 opponent. There is not much available footage on Vega, but what is available suggests that she is not a top-level prospect.
Even the worst version of Holm is still a substantial increase from the competition Vega is used to. Vega has solely competed in front of small crowds in niche markets before being thrust into this showcase bout. The stark environmental change can be overwhelming to an inexperienced fighter who also has to deal with the pressure of facing a legend.
Why Yolanda Vega Will Win
Needless to say, it is difficult to predict how Holm will look in the ring once she returns. It has been well over a decade since her last boxing bout. Her MMA career certainly kept her in elite shape, but the two sports hardly translate to one another at the highest level. However, over the final few years of Holm's career, she hardly looked like a world champion boxer, basing her game around clinch control and takedowns rather than using her hands.
Once an athletic and powerful puncher known for her speed, Holm has been on a significant athletic decline over the past few years. Her hand speed, footwork, and power are all significantly diminished. Even considering her recent fights in an MMA setting, Holm's evident decline has not allowed her to out-box any recent UFC opponents.
Despite the big change for Vega in her career, she does not seem to be shying away from the moment one bit. Vega has exuded confidence all week, to the moment of their face-off, during which she stared down Holm until the last second. An aggressive approach could be all Vega needs to beat Holm at this point in their careers.
Final Holly Holm-Yolanda Vega Prediction & Pick
Holly Holm is the cleaner and crisper boxer between the two, but that might not be enough at this point in her career. On paper, returning to her roots in boxing is an ideal career change, but there is nothing from Holm's final six UFC fights that alludes to her previous career. MMA and boxing are two entirely different sports, but Holm's hand speed, head movement, and footwork looked like those of an athlete well past her expiration date.
However, while Vega has been saying all week that she will get in Holm's face, she does not have the best footwork to get into range. Holm looked like the bigger fighter in their face-off and might have a slight strength advantage. That might be a difficult challenge for Vega, who is used to being the bigger woman. With just one knockout in her 10 regional fights, Vega does not seem to have the power to threaten Holm, who has never lost by decision.
Time and again, the biggest factor in aging fighters is the decline in volume. Given the decade-long layoff from boxing, Holm will almost certainly need an adjustment period. However, there should be no doubt who will be the cleaner boxer once Holm finds her rhythm. The unknowns of Holm's career make Vega certainly worth a sprinkle as the underdog, but Holm should have more than enough left to get the judges' decision. It just might be a little tighter than many predict.
Will Update Odds Upon Release
Final Holly Holm-Yolanda Vega Prediction & Pick: Holly Holm by Decision
