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One of the most exciting boxers of the modern era returns to the ring for possibly the final time when Deontay Wilder (43-4-1) faces Tyrrell Herndon (24-5). It is time to continue our boxing odds series with a Deontay Wilder-Tyrrell Herndon prediction and pick.
Wilder, 39, continues to tease retirement but nonetheless returns for another headlining bout. ‘The Bronze Bomber' returns from a year-long layoff after getting knocked out by Zhilei Zhang in the main event of the high-profile “Queensberry vs. Matchroom 5v5” fight card. Since losing the WBC heavyweight title to Tyson Fury in 2019, Wilder is just 1-4 in his last five fights.
Herndon, 37, is a significant step down from Zhang to give Wilder another clear tune-up opportunity. The San Antonio native has never fought anyone close to Wilder's level and is coming off consecutive split decision victories over Rudy Silvas and Miree Coleman.
Here are the Deontay Wilder-Tyrrell Herndon odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Boxing Odds: Deontay Wilder-Tyrrell Herndon Odds
Deontay Wilder: -1450
Tyrrell Herndon: +620
Over 7.5 Rounds:
Under 7.5 Rounds:
How to Watch Deontay Wilder vs. Tyrrell Herndon
Time: 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT
Main event ring walk (estimated): 11 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. PT
TV/Stream: BLK Prime PPV
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access / Save $30)*
Why Deontay Wilder Will Win
No matter how old Wilder gets, he still has arguably the most power of any boxer of all time. Wilder is one of the rare fighters who truly need just one touch to get any fight done, and still has that power, even at this point in his career. Wilder has 12 knockdowns in his last 10 fights, including three in his current 1-4 skid.
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A career journeyman like Herndon can look good in certain spots against subpar competition, but he has never come close to being an elite fighter. The records of the last five fighters Herndon beat are 7-0-1, 8-9, 7-3, 15-11 and 4-12. Some of those wins were wire-to-wire and much closer than they should have been. Conversely, the four fighters Wilder has lost to are all former champions.
The last time Wilder fought an opponent similar to Herndon's level, he knocked Robert Helenius out cold in the first round. Wilder did not even need to land cleanly in that fight and decked Helenius with a short counter right hand. Herndon does not move his head and has a weaker chin than Helenius did, losing four of his five bouts by knockout.
Why Tyrrell Herndon Will Win
It has been a while since Deontay Wilder last stepped into the ring, and even longer since he looked like himself. Fighters mulling retirement never fare well, and Wilder has not looked like the ‘Bronze Bomber' of old after his three wars with Tyson Fury from 2018 to 2021. If the best versions of both men show up, Wilder wins this fight with one hand, but there is no telling what he will look like on Friday night. The only factor fans can be confident in is that the best version of Wilder is long gone.
The most concerning aspect of Wilder's decline is his astonishingly low output in his recent performances. The former champion landed just 16 total punches in his five-round fight with Zhang, averaging just over three per round. Wilder has never been a technician but has completely abandoned his jab and confined his game to winging desperate overhands.
Herndon will fight at a significant size disadvantage, but he might be the stronger fighter. Wilder's 6-foot-7, 226-pound frame is infamously frail, particularly in his lower half. Wilder will be longer, but he almost never uses his range, making it easier for Herndon to get inside with an aggressive approach. If Herndon can get into the pocket, it becomes a pure dogfight, where he can test the chin of Wilder, who has three knockout losses in his last five fights.
Final Deontay Wilder-Tyrrell Herndon Prediction & Pick
There are a lot of legitimate concerns with Wilder coming into this fight. Since losing the belt, Wilder is just 1-4 in his last five outings, and has not fought in over a year since being brutally knocked out by Zhilei Zhang. Regardless of the concerns, Herndon is simply levels beneath Wilder and hand-picked as an opponent against whom the former champion should get one final highlight to ride off into the sunset.
As concerning as Wilder's low output has been recently, Herndon also struggles with the same issue. Herndon does not have the technical skills to get past Wilder's reach advantage and rarely strings combinations together. Defensively, his head hardly moves off the center line, and his reactions when getting hit cleanly are as poor as possible. Even if the worst version of Wilder shows up, he should gain immense confidence once he starts hitting Herndon.
Whenever Herndon faces a legitimate opponent, he has not come close to making the fight competitive. This fight card is built to showcase Wilder, potentially for the final time, and should end with a bang. Wilder will not be “back,” even with a big knockout, but it will be one final joyride for his fans to cap off a decorated career.
Final Deontay Wilder-Tyrrell Herndon Prediction & Pick: Deontay Wilder by KO/TKO (-800), Deontay Wilder in Round 1-5 (-260)
