The Toronto Blue Jays (30-27) visit the New York Mets (30-27) for the first of a three-game series. First pitch commences Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Blue Jays-Mets prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Here are the Blue Jays-Mets MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Blue Jays-Mets Odds
Toronto Blue Jays: +1.5 (-176)
New York Mets: -1.5 (+146)
Over: 8.5 (-114)
Under: 8.5 (-106)
How To Watch Blue Jays vs. Mets
TV: Sportsnet, SNY
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET/ 4:10 p.m. PT
*See how to watch Blue Jays-Mets LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Blue Jays Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 5-5 (Fourth in the AL East)
Run Line Record: 27-30 (47%)
Over Record: 27-27-3 (50%)
Toronto cooled off in May after a blistering-hot opening month that saw them finish 17-10. That flipped over the past month during which they went just 11-17. While their offense actually improved over that span, the Blue Jays pitching staff has fallen apart after allowing opponents to record a .334 on-base percentage in May. Still, Toronto features one of the best young lineups in all of baseball as they rank in the top 10 in runs, OPS, and strikeout rate. While they will want a bounce-back start from Chris Bassitt tonight, their star-studded lineup will give them a strong chance to cover regardless.
Righty Chris Bassitt (5-4) makes his 12th start of the season for the Blue Jays tonight. The 34-year-old parlayed the best season of his career with the Mets last season into a big deal with Toronto this offseason. After a blow-up in his first start, Bassitt settled down nicely – notably throwing shutouts in his first three May starts. Although the Twins crushed him in his most recent outing, Bassitt still holds quality counting stats of a 3.80 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. That said, an excepted ERA of 4.95 certainly rings some alarm bells headed into tonight's matchup. Still, the Mets have been far from consistent on the offensive end (ranking 19th in runs and OPS) which gives Bassitt a good opportunity to bounce back against his former team.
While the Blue Jays feature a number of quality bats, the story of their season has been shortstop Bo Bichette. The 25-year-old has been one of the best all-around hitters since entering the league in 2019 but has taken his game to the next level this season. Through 57 games, he holds the third-highest average in the league at .332 while leading Toronto with 12 home runs and 39 RBI. Coming off a month in which he batted .350, look for Bichette to record his first career hit against the legend Justin Verlander (0-6 all-time).
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 6-4 (Second in the NL East)
Run Line Record: 22-35 (39%)
Over Record: 26-30-1 (46%)
New York struggled in the second month of the season – going just 14-15 after a 14-11 April. Despite some big names in their lineup, the Mets have been incredibly disappointing on the offensive side of the plate. They rank just 19th in runs per game and 22nd in total bases. However, some positive regression is likely on its way soon. The Mets hold strong underlying numbers – ranking an unlucky 25th in BABIP while striking out at the third-lowest rate and walking at the seventh-highest rate. Additionally, they enter tonight red-hot after sweeping the Phillies. Considering their strong 15-9 home record, New York certainly warrants consideration despite being a 1.5-run favorite.
Reigning Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander (2-2) makes his sixth start of the season for the Mets tonight. The 40-year-old enjoyed a storybook season with the Astros last year. After missing the entirety of 2021 and nearly all of 2020, Verlander was assumed to be passed his dominant seasons before going 18-4 and recording a 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. Upon inking a deal with the Mets this offseason, the future Hall of Famer missed the first month of the season and has been hit-or-miss since returning. Of his five starts, he allowed fewer than three runs in three of them. However, he was stalled in the other two outings – giving up six runs a piece.
While he is coming off one of those blow-ups, it came at Coors Field – a notoriously difficult place to pitch. He looked sharp in his most recent home outing when he held Cleveland to just three hits and a single run in 8.0 innings. While the Blue Jays present a tougher matchup than the lowly Guardians, they've averaged just 3.9 runs per game over their last eight games.
Final Blue Jays-Mets Prediction & Pick
Although Justin Verlander is coming off a rough start, I like him (and the Mets) to bounce back tonight and win their fourth-straight game.
Final Blue Jays-Mets Prediction & Pick: New York Mets -1.5 (+146)