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Eight months after fighting to a second razor-thin, controversial decision, Katie Taylor (24-1) and Amanda Serrano (47-3-1) will meet for a third time with all the belts on the line. It is time to continue our boxing odds series with a Katie Taylor-Amanda Serrano 3 prediction and pick.
The two champions have already fought twice before, most recently for the undisputed super lightweight title. While Taylor is already up 2-0 in the series, both victories have been hotly contested. The most recent result, a unanimous decision victory for Taylor, was the most controversial, due to its high-profile nature as the co-main event of the blockbuster Jake Paul-Mike Tyson fight card.
Taylor, 39, enters the bout on a two-fight win streak, including her recent win over Serrano in the rematch. Taylor suffered her first professional loss in a May 2023 title defense against Chantelle Cameron but avenged it six months later. The consecutive wins over Cameron and Serrano gave her a 2-0 record in rematches heading into the trilogy bout.
Serrano, 36, is still the undisputed women's featherweight champion, despite the losses to Taylor. As the female face of the Paul-run Most Valuable Promotions, Serrano has been more active than Taylor since their rivalry began in 2022. Her most recent victory was a dominant second-round TKO win over Stevie Morgan in July 2024.
Here are the Katie Taylor-Amanda Serrano 3 odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Netflix Boxing Odds: Katie Taylor-Amanda Serrano 3 Odds
Katie Taylor: +140
Amanda Serrano: -180
Over 9.5 Rounds: -850
Under 9.5 Rounds: +500
How to Watch Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano 3
Time: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Main event ring walk (estimated): 11:30 p.m. ET / 8:30 p.m. PT
TV/Stream: Netflix
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access / Save $30)*
Why Katie Taylor Will Win
However fans feel about it, Taylor is already 2-0 against Serrano and is now an underdog in the trilogy bout. Many believe the record should be 2-0 in favor of Serrano, but pricing a legend like Taylor as an underdog against an opponent she has already beaten twice is questionable. Taylor has officially only lost once in her career and is 2-0 in rematches, including the last win over Serrano.
Fans love Serrano, but the notion that she is way better than Taylor is simply untrue. They are as evenly matched as any two opponents can be. Serrano's power creates big crowd reactions and catches fans' attention, but Taylor's speed and combinations have been a routine issue for her. Serrano tends to become more reckless once the bout inevitably turns into a scrappy dogfight, creating openings for Taylor to time quick combinations and throw off her advances.
By the end of the rematch, Serrano was a bloody mess, despite landing nearly 100 more punches. However, her corner openly complained that Taylor created the cuts with headbutts. Some say the headbutts clearly caused Serrano's cut, while others argue that the wound was already there. What is not up for debate is how Taylor's quick, slicing hooks opened up the gashes, painting Serrano's face red.
Why Amanda Serrano Will Win
As the older fighter, every day that passes is worse for Taylor than it is for Serrano. That seemed to be on display in the rematch, when Serrano landed 324 punches to Taylor's 217, per Compubox. Both women picked up the pace from their first fight, when ‘The Real Deal' still outlanded ‘The Bray Bomber' 173 to 147.
Not only is Serrano throwing more volume, but her punches are visibly more effective. Taylor might have the cleaner combinations, but Serrano has turned both previous matchups into gritty brawls, which favors her more than it does Taylor. Neither woman has recorded a knockdown against the other, but Serrano's left hand continues to deal the most damage thus far.
The headbutt controversy marred what was otherwise a classic fight, but it was a legitimate gripe. If Serrano can avoid them in the clinch, she has otherwise done the most damage. Taylor tends to steal moments when Serrano leaves her chin up in the air, but the latter routinely responds with three to five-punch combinations for every two shots she absorbs.
Final Katie Taylor-Amanda Serrano 3 Prediction & Pick
Despite the series record, fans are quick to jump on Serrano due to the bad taste left by the previous controversial decisions. Yet, contrary to what Serrano's team believes, Taylor is much more than just her headbutts. The Irish champion is arguably the top active female boxer and one of the best in the game at making fight-to-fight adjustments.
Still, Taylor just turned 39 and continues to address her impending retirement, even if she dismisses the topic. Serrano is only three years younger, but every passing day is much worse for the champion than it is for the younger challenger. The wars they continue to engage in have been more taxing on Taylor than on Serrano.
Regardless of game plans, Serrano is going to turn this fight into another brawl with her relentless pressure and pace. The momentum changes with every blow between them, but Serrano appeared to have the upper hand in the second fight, had it not been for the headbutts. The referee will likely keep a keen eye on them after the backlash it caused eight months ago. Given how close they are on paper, it is hard to see Taylor taking all three fights.
Final Katie Taylor-Amanda Serrano 3 Prediction & Pick: Amanda Serrano (-180)
