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The UFC Nashville Main Card continues to roll from Bridgestone Arena on Saturday as we bring you another betting prediction and pick for this upcoming bout in the Featherweight (145) Division. No. 14-ranked Calvin Kattar will defend his ranking against the rising Steve Garcia of Jackson Wink MMA. Check UFC odds for our Kattar-Garcia prediction and pick.
Calvin Kattar (23-9) has gone 7-7 inside the UFC since 2017. Once one of the most dangerous fighters the division has to offer, Kattar is on a four-fight losing streak, the longest of his career, following his last loss against Youssef Zalal. He'll hope to bounce back as the short betting underdog. Kattar stands 5-foot-11 with a 72-inch reach.
Steve Garcia (17-5) is 6-2 through his UFC fights since 2020. He's been just the opposite with five consecutive victories leading up to this point, three of which earned him “Performance of the Night” bonuses. He'll be looking to once again improve his stock with a win over his first ranked opponent. Garcia stands six feet tall with a 75-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Nashville Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Nashville odds: Calvin Kattar-Steve Garcia odds
Calvin Kattar: +105
Steve Garcia: -125
Over 1.5 rounds: -160
Under 1.5 rounds: +124
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Why Calvin Kattar will win
- Last Fight: (L) Youssef Zalal – U DEC
- Last 5: 1-4
- Finishes: 10 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Calvin Kattar returns after coming up short once again against a young, up-and-coming opponent in Zalal. During that bout, Kattar struggled to close the distance effectively and got peppered by Zalal's jab every time he attempted to step into range.
He's had a similar issue over his last few fights when facing aggressive boxers opposite of him. During this fight, he'll have to turn back the clock and show off some of his vintage boxing if he wants a chance.
Over the years, Calvin Kattar has been involved in some absolute wars, and it's beginning to show on his chin with a compromised ability to take a clean shot. Garcia has been on a tear knocking opponents out, and while Kattar has a solid chin for the most part, he's been easier to crack over these last few fights.
Still, we can't dismiss his raw talent and technique as a pure boxer. From range, Kattar has some of the smoother combinations in the division, and he's certainly capable of dishing damage to opponents. However, this fight will be more about his defense in closing the distance and avoiding clean shots from his opponent.
Why Steve Garcia will win
- Last Fight: (W) Kyle Nelson – TKO (punches, R1)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 14 KO/TKO
Steve Garcia's last knockout win marked the second straight performance bonus he's received and will be hoping to do the same in this fight. Since going on his winning streak, Garcia has massively improved his defense and has looked much more comfortable when striking against dangerous opponents.
Kattar will be his toughest opponent by far, but Garcia's recent success suggests he's fully prepared to break in to the rankings.
Garcia has many similar characteristics to his opponent in that they're both slick boxers and aren't afraid to plant their feet in the pocket and strike within a phone booth. Garcia also does a great job of moving his head off the center line, so it'll be interesting to watch the cat-and-mouse game between these two as they try to gauge the range.
While Garcia doesn't have blistering one-punch knockout power, his strength comes from his accuracy and ability to hit opponents where it matters. He picks his shots very carefully and will likely be looking to counter on Kattar any time he over-extends himself.
Final Calvin Kattar-Steve Garcia prediction & pick
This fight should be another banger as both men have had their fair share of “Fight of the Night” bouts and performance bonuses. Calvin Kattar, still ranked, is currently on the longest losing streak of his career and is desperately looking for a fight where he can showcase his boxing skills once again. He may have his wish in Steve Garcia as an opponent.
Garcia, however, is showing flashes of a previous Calvin Kattar with the way he's been able to stun opponents with his boxing. His power is sneaky, and he does a great job of hitting the mark with 56% accuracy opposite of Kattar's 38% mark. Kattar is also absorbing 6.62 strikes per minute, not faring well against Garcia, who's landing 5.02 strikes per minute.
Ultimately, while Calvin Kattar has certainly seen the better competition throughout his career, it's tough to back him confidently until he can pull himself out of this rut. We feel much safer backing Steve Garcia in this fight as he should rise to the occasion and finally crack the top-15 rankings.
Final Calvin Kattar-Steve Garcia Prediction & Pick: Steve Garcia (-125)
