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The UFC Nashville Prelims are beginning to heat up as we bring you another betting prediction and pick for this next bout in the Women's Flyweight (125) Division on Saturday. UFC veteran Lauren Murphy will take on rising Brazilian prospect Eduarda Moura in an exciting bout. Check UFC odds for our Murphy-Moura prediction and pick.
Lauren Murphy (16-6) has gone 8-6 since joining the UFC roster in 2014. Going 3-2 in her last five fights, she notched impressive wins over the likes of Joanne Wood and Miesha Tate most recently. She was a heavy underdog her last time out against Jessica Andrade and will see a similar story in this one. Murphy stands 5-foot-5 with a 67-inch reach.
Eduarda Moura (11-1) is 2-1 under the UFC since debuting in 2023. She entered the UFC on a perfect 10-0 run through the regional scene and impressed with a knockout in her debut. She lost a split decision to Denise Gomes but bounced back last fight with a win over Veronica Hardy. Moura stands 5-foot-6 with a 67-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Nashville Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Nashville odds: Lauren Murphy-Eduarda Moura odds
Lauren Murphy: +440
Eduarda Moura: -600
Over 2.5 rounds: -330
Under 2.5 rounds: +240
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Why Lauren Murphy will win
- Last Fight: (L) Jessica Andrade – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Lauren Murphy makes her return following a tough loss to Jessica Andrade over two years ago in January 2023. She was badly beaten and took a ton of damage to her face, but managed to remain standing until the final bell. Murphy absorbed a ton of clean shots during that fight, so it was a smart move to sit and let her chin rest for a while.
With Murphy, opponents know exactly what they're getting in a striker that moves forward relentlessly and pops her jab. She sits down on her punches and isn't afraid to get hit in the process, so Murphy is completely capable of wearing down an opponent and kicking up her cardio in the final round.
To have a chance as the big underdog here, Murphy will have to drag Moura into deep waters while keeping her forward pressure. Moura has had issues with her gas tank in previous bouts and Murphy has yet to be submitted in her career, so she'll certainly have a chance the longer this fight wanes on.
Why Eduarda Moura will win
- Last Fight: (W) Veronica Hardy – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 5 SUB
Eduarda Moura comes in following a dominant victory over Veronica Hardy where she controlled the ground game. While she was out-struck on the feet and visibly tired by the end of the fight, she did enough in keeping Hardy on the canvas and working her submission attempts. Look for a similar game plan as she tries to expose Murphy's ground game.
It's worth noting that of her three UFC bouts, Moura has missed weight on two occasions. A promising sign is that she made weight most recently for Hardy, but her conditioning and pace at the end of fights will remain a point of improvement for her.
Nevertheless, Moura is a very talented grappler and sports a 100% takedown defense rate. While she's gone just 35% on her own attempts thus far, she's very good about keeping opponents pinned once she lands a shot.
She's averaging 4.4 takedowns per contest and although her opponent has yet to be submitted, Moura should immediately display a strong sense of advantage and poise on the mat.
Final Lauren Murphy-Eduarda Moura prediction & pick
This should be a fun fight between two scrapping Flyweights and the betting odds should honestly be a bit closer than they are.
While Lauren Murphy is certainly at a disadvantage to a much younger, more athletic opponent, she's one of the toughest fighters in the UFC and won't go down easily on punches alone. Striking isn't necessarily Moura's strong suit, so Murphy can see success if she manages to keep this fight on the feet.
However, Eduarda Moura is averaging four times the takedowns of Murphy and she's bound to land one eventually. Her cardio will need to be on point for the pace Lauren Murphy sets, and this should be a great learning lesson for Moura as she takes on a smart veteran in Murphy.
I think Lauren Murphy has a serious shot to win this fight if she's able to discourage the takedowns and be unrelenting with her forward pressure. Eduarda Moura hasn't been great off her back foot, and if Murphy is able to tire her out, this fight could get very interesting in the third round.
Still, Moura does enough in the first two rounds and ultimately wins a close decision.
Final Lauren Murphy-Eduarda Moura Prediction & Pick: Eduarda Moura (-600); Wins by Decision (-200)
