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Alycia Baumgardner (14-1, one no-contest) will be the first of two undisputed champions to put her belts on the line Friday night when she faces Jennifer Miranda (12-0). It is time to continue our boxing odds series with an Alycia Baumgardner-Jennifer Miranda prediction and pick.
Baumgardner, 31, has been a consensus top 10 pound-for-pound female boxer since she finished beloved former titleholder Terri Harper to become world champion in 2021. Despite her growing star power, Baumgardner has struggled to get into the ring lately, fighting just once in the last two years. Her last fight with Delfine Persoon resulted in a no-contest, making her most recent win over Christina Linardatou nearly two years ago to date. She avenged the lone defeat in her career with that victory.
Miranda, 38, will look to pull off one of the biggest upsets on the biggest stage of her career. Though undefeated, she has yet to fight in front of a national audience. Miranda enters her first world title bout off a lopsided unanimous decision victory over Teresa Almengor in October 2024.
Here are the Alycia Baumgardner-Jennifer Miranda odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Netflix Boxing Odds: Alycia Baumgardner-Jennifer Miranda Odds
Alycia Baumgardner: -3000
Jennifer Miranda: +890
Over 9.5 Rounds: -290
Under 9.5 Rounds: +195
How to Watch Alycia Baumgardner vs. Jennifer Miranda
Time: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Fight ring walk time (estimated): 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
TV/Stream: Netflix
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Why Alycia Baumgardner Will Win
Baumgardner is simply a juggernaut who has looked unbeatable at 130 pounds over the past four years. Miranda enters this challenge simply by default, despite most expecting Baumgardner to rematch Persoon after their no-contest. Miranda has yet to fight outside of Spain and has just five wins over opponents with winning records.
There is not much public tape on Miranda, but what is available suggests she is a physical brawler with a desire to mix it up in the pocket more than pick her shots at range. Yet, Miranda has just one knockout win in her 12 fights against low-level competition. She instead relies on simply overwhelming her opponents, a tactic that has never been successfully employed against Baumgardner before.
Since signing with Most Valuable Promotions, Baumgardner has expressed nothing but excitement and eagerness to return to action. Already one of the most physically gifted women in the sport, Baumgardner has been fully locked in for months. After the way her Matchroom Boxing tenure ended, she seems relieved to have finally found a new home.
Why Jennifer Miranda Will Win
Baumgardner is clean, fast, and technical at range, but she never shies away from stepping into the pocket. That habit could get her into trouble against Miranda, whose best chance is to lure Baumgardner into a war. Baumgardner is clearly dying to show out after going two years without a win and seems like a fighter ready to compete on emotion more than instinct.
Miranda is not the most technically skilled boxer and does not set up her attacks effectively, but she possesses raw power. A collected Baumgardner would be tough to break down, but an emotional one will present more openings. As much of a big stage as this is for Miranda, Baumgardner has never fought in front of as many viewers either.
While Baumgardner tends to own a physical edge over her opponents, Miranda matched up well with her in their face-off. Miranda, who is known for her strength and power, will not be an opponent that the champion will be able to throw around as easily. If ring rust is a factor for either fighter, it will be Baumgardner, as Miranda has gone 4-0 in the time since the former last picked up a win.
Final Alycia Baumgardner-Jennifer Miranda Prediction & Pick
The last two years have been a roller coaster ride for Baumgardner, but everything seems to be in order. It has been a while since she last picked up a win, but she is being set up to look like a star in her Most Valuable Promotions debut. Miranda is a fine regional-level fighter, but she is arguably the softest opponent Baumgardner will face since becoming champion.
There are some concerns with Baumgardner, as fans did not like how she allowed Persoon to push her way back into the fight in her last outing. The inactivity seemed to catch up with Baumgardner in that bout, which could persist against a brawler like Miranda. But Persoon is widely regarded as the No. 1 contender and far above Miranda's level. The pressure seemed to be getting to Miranda at Madison Square Garden.
One bomb from Miranda could change everything, but Baumgardner should see everything coming. Similar aggressive approaches have not worked against her before, as Mikaela Mayer landed just 28.8 percent of her punches in their fight. Baumgardner should cruise, but just might not have enough time to figure out her timing to get her first stoppage win since 2021.
Final Alycia Baumgardner-Jennifer Miranda Prediction & Pick: Alycia Baumgardner by Decision (-220)
