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The UFC Nashville Main Card is officially underway as we bring you our betting prediction and pick for this upcoming scrap in the Light Heavyweight (205) Division on Saturday. Australia's Junior Tafa takes on England's Tuco Tokkos in a bout that's sure to bring the fireworks! Check UFC odds for our Tafa-Tokkos prediction and pick.
Junior Tafa (6-3) is looking to improve upon a 2-3 record in the UFC thus far. Following back-to-back losses against stern competition, Tafa won his latest bout against Sean Sharaf in TKO fashion. Billed as the betting favorite, he'll try to bring some of his knockout magic back for consecutive wins. Tafa stands 6-foot-3 with a 75-inch reach.
Tuco Tokkos (10-5) is still searching for his first UFC win with a 0-2 record. While he didn't stand much of a chance against Oumar Sy during his debut, he put up a much better fight against Navajo Stirling during his most recent loss. He's listed as the underdog for the third time in three UFC appearances. Tokkos stands 6-foot-4 with a 76-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Nashville Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Nashville odds: Junior Tafa-Tuco Tokkos odds
Junior Tafa: -170
Tuco Tokkos: +142
Over 1.5 rounds: +105
Under 1.5 rounds: -135
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Why Junior Tafa will win
- Last Fight: (W) Sean Sharaf – TKO (punches, R2)
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO
Junior Tafa cashed in during his last bout by stopping Sharaf on the feet with punches. Tafa was visibly tired at that point of the second round, but his opponent was on wobbly legs, and he managed to get the finish. Prior to that, Tafa had a strange ending with a verbal tap to Valter Walker, so he'll certainly want a more definitive result in this fight.
Tafa is known for his chaotic striking in the first round and ability to draw opponents into a brawl. He has an insanely tough chin to crack and is not likely to go down on punches alone. Still, he's still rather fresh into his pro MMA career, and he has a long way to go in terms of mastering techniques and pacing himself over three rounds.
Tafa is the rightful favorite here thanks to his knockout power and ability to shrug opponents' offense off and run through them. He'll need to be careful of the occasional takedown attempt, but Tafa's biggest focus will be sustainable offense over a prolonged period of time.
Why Tuco Tokkos will win
- Last Fight: (L) Navajo Stirling – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Tuco Tokkos has now gotten two poor draws to start his UFC career as he's had to face top prospects in Oumar Sy and Navajo Stirling. Both opponents were extremely long, athletic strikers who mixed in their kicking attacks well. Tokkos will have a much better look here in Tafa as he'll be the slightly taller and longer guy. Tafa also withdrew from a previous meeting back in May, so there could be some bad blood as Tokkos is hungry for the matchup.
Tokkos will see success if he's able to weather the early storm and allow Tafa to gas himself out on big punches. He managed to take a talented striker like Stirling the distance, so Tokkos' defense is certainly capable of taking him past the second round in this one. Either way, he'll need to be diligent with his arm guard and not allow Tafa to punch through and land his target.
Final Junior Tafa-Tuco Tokkos prediction & pick
This should be a banging fight to open the Main Card as both men are hungry to earn a win. Junior Tafa looked to be on his A-game during his last fight in terms of the striking but was visibly gassed by the end of the bout. His cardio will remain a question until more opponents can test him past the second round.
Tuco Tokkos is the perfect opponent to do just that as his striking defense is a decent 48%. He'll do a good job of working around the combinations from Tafa and hoping to find himself the fresher fighter by the later rounds.
Still, Tokkos is absorbing more punches than he's landing at the moment, and it'll only take a couple of clean shots from Tafa to change this fight. The longer Tokkos can take it, however, the more it will favor him in terms of cardio.
For our final prediction, we'll still side with Junior Tafa as the favorite knowing he can get the job done. The over isn't a bad play either – with Tafa in much better physical shape this time around, it should offer him confidence to push this fight into the later rounds.
Final Junior Tafa-Tuco Tokkos Prediction & Pick: Junior Tafa (-170); OVER 1.5 Rounds (+105)
