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UFC Nashville: Derrick Lewis versus Tallison Teixeira continues on the main card with a fight between Stephen Thompson and Gabriel Bonfim in the welterweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Thompson-Bonfim prediction and pick.
Stephen Thompson (17-8-1) enters UFC Nashville looking to rebound from a tough stretch, having lost to Shavkat Rakhmonov by submission and then suffering a knockout against Joaquin Buckley last October. Now, “Wonderboy” aims to turn back the clock and halt Gabriel Bonfim’s rise when they meet Saturday night.
Gabriel Bonfim (17-1) rebounded from his first career loss to Nicolas Dalby by outpointing Ange Loosa in a dominant unanimous decision last July, then submitted Khaos Williams with a D’arce choke in February. Now “Marretinha” looks to continue his resurgence by halting Stephen Thompson’s comeback at UFC Nashville this Saturday night.
Here are the UFC Nashville Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Nashville odds: Stephen Thompson-Gabriel Bonfim odds
Stephen Thompson: +330
Gabriel Bonfim: -425
Over 2.5 rounds: -105
Under 2.5 rounds: -125
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Why Stephen Thompson will win
- Last Fight: (L) Joaquin Buckley – KO/TKO R3
- Last 5: 1-4
- Finishes: 9 (8 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Stephen Thompson has the tools to upset Gabriel Bonfim at UFC Nashville thanks to his unique striking style, veteran experience, and cage IQ.
Thompson’s karate-based movement and 75-inch reach allow him to control range, keeping aggressive opponents like Bonfim at bay with side kicks, long-range flurries, and unpredictable angles. His striking accuracy (46%) and defensive savvy mean he absorbs less damage than Bonfim, who is often willing to take risks and eat shots to land his own.
If Thompson can maintain distance and force Bonfim to engage on the feet, he’ll have opportunities to exploit the Brazilian’s tendency to back up in straight lines with his chin exposed.
Thompson’s lateral movement and ability to counter from awkward angles have frustrated countless opponents, and Bonfim’s striking defense lapses could be costly against a sniper like “Wonderboy.”
Bonfim’s biggest threat is his grappling, but Thompson’s experience against elite wrestlers and his ability to nullify takedowns, even if diminished with age, give him a fighting chance to keep the bout standing.
If Thompson can avoid prolonged ground exchanges and dictate the pace, his veteran savvy, fight IQ, and striking arsenal could allow him to outpoint Bonfim over three rounds or even find a late finish. In a battle of youth versus experience, Thompson’s technical mastery and strategic discipline make him a live underdog capable of pulling off the upset in Nashville.
Why Gabriel Bonfim will win
- Last Fight: (W) Khaos Williams – SUB R2
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 16 (3 KO/TKO/13 SUB)
Gabriel Bonfim is primed to defeat Stephen Thompson at UFC Nashville thanks to his relentless grappling, finishing instincts, and youthful aggression. Bonfim averages an impressive 3.68 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 76% accuracy, making him one of the most efficient wrestlers in the division.
Once on the mat, he’s a constant submission threat, averaging 2.2 submissions per 15 minutes and rarely letting opponents off the hook.
Bonfim’s ability to blend pressure striking with quick level changes poses a serious challenge for Thompson, whose takedown defense sits at a modest 63%. Thompson’s world-class karate and footwork are less effective when he’s forced to fight off his back or defend relentless grappling sequences.
Bonfim’s youth and cardio also give him an edge, as he’s shown the ability to maintain a high pace and capitalize on any signs of fatigue in his opponents.
While Thompson’s striking remains dangerous, Bonfim’s willingness to engage on the feet only to set up his grappling makes him unpredictable and hard to game plan against. If Bonfim can close the distance, initiate clinches, and drag Thompson to the canvas, he’s likely to control the fight and hunt for a finish.
Expect Bonfim’s pressure, submission arsenal, and physicality to overwhelm the veteran, leading to a dominant win and a potential breakthrough into the welterweight Top 15.
Final Stephen Thompson-Gabriel Bonfim prediction & pick
Gabriel Bonfim enters UFC Nashville as the favorite thanks to his relentless grappling and finishing instincts.
Bonfim’s ability to blend high-volume takedowns with submission threats makes him a stylistic nightmare for Thompson, whose takedown defense has shown vulnerabilities against aggressive wrestlers. If Bonfim can close the distance and drag the fight to the mat, he’s likely to control the action and hunt for a finish.
Thompson’s striking and footwork remain dangerous, but his effectiveness diminishes when forced to defend takedowns and work off his back. Bonfim’s youth, cardio, and pressure should allow him to wear down the veteran over three rounds. Expect Bonfim to dictate the pace, score with ground control, and potentially secure a late submission or clear decision win in Nashville.
Final Stephen Thompson-Gabriel Bonfim Prediction & Pick: Gabriel Bonfim by Decision (+200), Over 2.5 Rounds (-145)
