The Boston Red Sox look to avoid the AL East basement this season. We're here to share our MLB odds series, and make a Red Sox over-under regular-season win total prediction for the 2024 season.
The Red Sox went 78-84 in 2023, finishing last in the American League East. It was the second consecutive season where they finished in the basement. Now, the Red Sox hired Craig Breslow as the Head of Baseball Operations with the hope that he can help jolt the team up in the right direction. There are some highlights from last season to build on.
Rafael Devers hit .271 with 33 home runs, 100 RBIs, and 90 runs, along with a .351 on-base percentage. Meanwhile, Jarren Duran finished with a batting average of .295 with eight home runs, 40 RBIs, 46 runs, and 24 stolen bases, along with an on-base percentage of .346 while acting as the leadoff hitter. Tristan Casas was solid, with a batting average of .263, 24 home runs, 65 RBIs, and 66 runs with an on-base percentage of .367.
The Red Sox added Lucas Giolito as a free agent to try and bolster their starting rotation. However, he had 15 losses last season and allowed 41 home runs, which was the most in the league. The Sox also added Tyler O'Neill in a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals for their lineup. Likewise, they grabbed Vaughn Grissom in a trade with the Atlanta Braves with the hope he will unleash his potential. Grissom had an on-base percentage of .419 in 468 plate appearances in Triple-A last season.
Here are the Win Total MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 2024 Win Total Odds
Over 79.5 Wins: -102
Under 79.5 Wins: -120
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Why Red Sox Will Win 79.5 Games
Devers is one of the best hitters in the game. Amazingly, he has clobbered 98 home runs over three seasons. In fact, he had a 93-MPH exit velocity last season. Duran is a weapon at the top of the lineup with enough speed to burst. Additionally, Grissom could easily make a mark in his first season as a member of the red Sox.
Brian Ballo is a solid starting pitcher with enough potential to become an ace. Last season, he went 12-11 with a 4.24 ERA through 28 starts. Ballo will try and make more strides and have a better season to improve. Meanwhile, Nick Pivetta also is on the cusp of being a good pitcher. He went 10-9 with a 4.04 ERA through 16 starts and 38 games last season. Ultimately, his fastball and slider combo was efficient, getting strikeouts 31 percent of the time last season.
Despite his age, Kenley Jansen is still a closer who can shut the door down on opposing hitters. Amazingly, he has converted 88 percent of his career save chances throughout his long tenure.
The Red Sox will win 80 games because they have three hitters that can make a difference and help this offense get to the top of the rankings. Then, they have two potential aces in waiting, along with a closer who is still tough to hit.
Why Red Sox Won't Win 79.5 Games
Regardless of the potential, this is still a very weak rotation. The Red Sox ranked 11th in the AL last season with a 4.68 ERA. Unfortunately, they faced too many situations where they found themselves trailing early and often in games. Whether they were playing the Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees, or Toronto Blue Jays, the Sox often found themselves trying to claw back.
The bullpen was just as bad. Sadly, they were 10th in the AL with a 4.32 ERA. No lead was safe for this bullpen, especially when facing their divisional rivals or any other team with a good lineup. But that was not nearly as bad as the defense. Somehow, the defense was the second-worst in the AL in fielding, with a staggering 102 errors. They hope that adding Grissom might help fix some of those issues. But he is only one player, and they will need a lot more than him to fix their holes.
The Red Sox also have an inconsistent lineup. Too often, they would have one great game and then go silent for a few consecutive games. The Sox need more consistency in their lineup.
The Red Sox will not win 80 games because their pitching staff is too weak. Additionally, their defense is poor, and their lineup cannot keep up.
Final Red Sox Over/Under Win Total Prediction
Even if you were trying to be optimistic about the Red Sox, look at the division they are in. The Orioles are stacked in the lineup and also have a decent rotation. Likewise, the Tampa Bay Rays always have a good team and are tough to beat. The Yanks just added Juan Soto and will be tough to beat. Also, the Blue Jays are still competitive. In addition to all that, the Sox also have games with the Atlanta Braves (four), a three-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies, along with road series against the Cincinnati Reds (three) and Miami Marlins (three). It's not going to be an easy path. The Red Sox will struggle mightily this season.
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Final Red Sox Over/Under Win Total Prediction: Under 79.5 Wins: -120
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