One of the surest things in life is Team USA men’s basketball team winning the gold medal in the Olympics. Ever since the original Dream Team of Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, and Magic Johnson was formed for the 1992 Barcelona Olympics, the competition itself has devolved into a semi-fictional tournament to determine which country is the best in the world in basketball if the United States did not exist. However, the 2021 version of Team USA with Kevin Durant as its alpha is struggling to find its form ahead of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.

When the 2004 version of Team USA failed in Athens and settled for a bronze medal two years after failing to even appear on the podium during the FIBA World Championship in Indianapolis, other powerhouses were starting to strongly believe that they were finally catching up on the Americans. Then 2008 happened. The real Gods of American basketball were sent to Beijing and mercilessly smashed every team that stood the way of the likes of LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul, and Dwyane Wade. The Redeem Team successfully announced to the world that Team USA basketball was back and that the gap between them and the rest of the world remains galaxies apart.

Over a decade later, Team USA finds itself being doubted again after losing to Nigeria and Australia in glorified practice games in Las Vegas. The loss to the Nigerians was especially shocking, as Gabe Vincent and company entered that game ranked 22nd in the world.

Given what we have seen so far, are the concerns warranted or just a product of an overblown collective reaction from social media?

Buying: Team USA will win gold

If we were in 1996, Team USA could send the Los Angeles Clippers to the Olympics, while you go to sleep for two weeks, wake up, turn on the TV and see gold medals around the necks of basketball luminaries like Loy Vaught and Lamond Murray. We can no longer make that joke today because Team USA has learned lessons the hard way in 2002 and 2004. If it is to win it all, the US has to send the best. And while Kevin Durant is arguably the best player right now and he’s surrounded by players who could just be as unguardable as him when they get in the zone (Damian Lillard, Jayson Tatum, Devin Booker, etc.), the next question would be, is will Team USA’s chemistry be good enough to survive teams like Spain, Australia, and Serbia?

Here’s Lillard reflecting on Team USA’s cohesion after the loss to the Boomers, per Jordan Greer of Sporting News:

“First thing that comes to mind for me is just the fact that these teams are experienced. They've spent a lot of time together,” Lillard said. “We are still working at becoming a team, still getting our legs under us, getting in shape. We're not just going to come out here, roll the ball out and beat these teams. We've got to play the right way, compete, and we've got to come out here to win and do everything to give ourselves our best chance to win.

Another concern for Team USA is its frontcourt. The NBA may be a league that's rapidly embraced the small ball approach but in the global arena, that trend is not being adopted as much. There are just too many layers and textures of basketball on the international stage for such a homogenous style to develop among these teams. Bam Adebayo is the only legitimate center on Team USA’s roster. Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Kevin Love can play the five as well when needed, but how confident are they to defend against post-heavy teams with full-time back-to-the-basket centers? 

Selling: USA will not win gold

It’s possible that Team USA just doesn’t care enough for exhibition games. Kevin Durant and the rest of the squad will turn it on once they’re in Tokyo. Until then, playing these games is nothing more than an act of charity for Team USA, where it would just let the other teams have the ephemeral joy of beating the big, bad bully who’s playing possum in practically meaningless games before smashing them into smithereens once things matter for real.

Although the frontcourt deserves to be scrutinized because of a lack of true centers,  is there really a big man out there that Team USA should honestly fear? Nikola Jokic won’t be with Serbia in Tokyo; Rudy Gobert of France isn’t a threat offensively;  Marc and Pau Gasol are years removed from their primes; Joel Embiid won’t be in Tokyo as well because Cameroon. 

The offense is definitely going to be there for the Americans. Kevin Durant will be a mismatch problem for opponents, Lillard doesn’t have to carry a scoring load, as he can just set the table for guys like Booker, Tatum, Khris Middleton, and Zach LaVine. 

Team USA has problems to deal with, but the headaches they will be causing the other teams would exponentially be worse.