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Since the introduction of the aprons in the NBA salary cap, the league has undergone somewhat of a transformation. But that's not necessarily why some teams are signaling a degree of “caution” about signing long-term contracts.
Although the aprons, particularly the second apron, have greatly affected how many teams do business, several have bitten or will continue to bite the proverbial bullet in order to try to field a competitive roster. However, there's another factor at play now that could be of concern for both the teams and the players.
“With the cap projected to rise only 7% for 2026-27 vs what was thought to be a near-guaranteed max of 10%, teams are wary of signing deals that will outpace the growth of the cap,” NBA insider Kevin Smith wrote on X, formerly Twitter, while explaining that many of the high-paying, long-term extensions call for 8% annual salary increases, which is obviously greater than the projected increase in the cap.
“This has impacted rookie scale extensions for the 2022 Draft class, as well as negotiations with RFAs this summer. We've seen very little movement with either of those markets thus far,” Smith wrote.
The 2025-26 salary cap increased from the previous season by 10%, which, as of the latest collective bargaining agreement, is the maximum year-over-year increase allowed. Many had expected the annual 10% jump to continue, especially after the NBA finalized an 11-year, $76 billion media rights deal with ESPN, NBC, and Amazon last July. The contract is set to go into effect this coming season.
If there is legitimate concern, the first players to truly feel it will be the likes of Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams, who are all largely expected to receive max contract extension offers of nearly $250 million over five years. However, if there is a feeling that the cap is slowing down, the teams might feel a little more hesitant when it is time to actually put pen to paper, or they could simply hold off on signing a deal until they are more certain of exactly where the cap figure will land in 2026.
Despite the reported caution, teams have been active during free agency, which has featured numerous trades, surprise signings, and intriguing rumors.
