The 2022 college football season is in its home stretch, with just one week remaining in the regular season. While the College Football Playoff race is getting all the attention, the race for the Heisman Trophy is just as, if not more intriguing. At this point in the college football season, though, it seems the Heisman race is down to just two players: USC's Caleb Williams and Ohio State's C.J. Stroud.
Williams and Stroud are superstar quarterbacks leading their teams to incredible seasons. Stroud has been the Heisman favorite for most of the season, but Williams has recently surpassed him, sitting at -130 Heisman odds compared to Stroud's +110, per FanDuel. Other players such as Michigan's Blake Corum and TCU's Max Duggan may still have a slim chance, but they face very long odds.
Both Williams and Stroud are having outstanding seasons, and both of them are more than worthy of the Heisman. However, there are a few factors that give Caleb Williams a very slight edge in this race. Let's go over a few reasons why Caleb Williams will win the Heisman Trophy this season.
3. Leading USC's turnaround
Prior to this season, USC football had been through a very rough stretch. The Trojans have only won one Pac-12 title since Pete Carroll left after the 2009 season, and they haven't even come close to national championship glory. 2021 was an especially low point for the Trojans as they finished 4-8 for their worst record since 1991.
Now, USC is firmly back in the national championship conversation, largely thanks to Caleb Williams and new head coach Lincoln Riley. The Trojans are 10-1 this season and just two wins away from the College Football Playoff. They have also already clinched a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game and is in the driver's seat to win the conference for the first time since 2017.
On the other hand, Ohio State has always been a powerhouse in recent years. The Buckeyes have been a consistent threat over the last decade and change, finishing with at least 11 wins every year since 2012, barring the COVID-shortened 2020 season where they made the National Championship Game. They might not be as prolific without Stroud, but they have shown they can contend with anyone under center.
The same isn't true for Williams and USC football. The Trojans live and die by the play of their offense, and their quarterback in particular. If the Heisman Trophy goes to the most valuable player in college football, then Williams is the easy pick over Stroud.
2. No clunkers
The key to winning the Heisman is consistency, and Caleb Williams has been arguably the most consistent player in the country. Even in his worst performances, Williams has not had a truly bad game this season.
The only subpar performance Williams has had came against Oregon State on Sept. 24, when he completed 16-of-36 passes for 180 yards and a touchdown. Despite posting season lows in passing yards and touchdowns, Williams still avoided the turnover bug and led a game-winning drive with the game on the line. Aside from that one game, Williams has been nothing short of fantastic this season.
Meanwhile, Stroud had a bad game on Nov. 5 against Northwestern, when he completed just 10-of-26 passes for a career-low 76 yards. Yes, the weather was awful and Stroud posted a career-high 79 rushing yards, but that doesn't make his performance good or even average. Stroud has also had a couple of average performances in games against Rutgers and Maryland.
Williams has the edge over Stroud in terms of consistency, and that should give him the edge in Heisman Trophy race as well.
1. Caleb Williams steps up in the big games
A huge key to USC football's resurgence has been Caleb Williams' ability to turn it on when the lights are at their brightest. He has played his best in the biggest moments and gives the Trojans a chance to win every time. He had an outstanding game in USC's 43-42 loss against Utah on Oct. 15, throwing for 381 yards and five touchdowns while fighting until the end.
Then, against UCLA on Saturday, Williams had the game of his life in USC's biggest game in years. He completed 32-of-43 passes for 470 yards, a career-high mark, and two touchdowns, and scored another touchdown on the ground. If Williams isn't at the top of his game, the Trojans don't win this 48-45 thriller.
Stroud has played well in Ohio State's biggest games this season, against Notre Dame and Penn State, but not as well as Williams did in his biggest games. One could also argue that the Buckeyes' defense was the main catalyst for their win, not Stroud. That is definitely not the case with the Trojans and Williams.
Williams has simply had more Heisman moments than Stroud has this season. No disrespect to the Ohio State star, but Williams has proven that he should be the Heisman Trophy winner this season.