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The Cleveland Browns are in Kansas City looking for a big upset in Week 1 against the Chiefs. Both teams have extremely high hopes for this season but only one will come out victorious. Baker Mayfield will be leading the offense with his main weapons back and Odell Beckham Jr. returning from injury. The Browns' offensive line surrounding that group could be the best in the game, and the defense is improved overall.
The Browns hold the Chiefs to 30 points or less
Holding a team to less than 30 points isn't always something that should be celebrated, but in this case, a parade might be in order. The Browns have spent the offseason trying to improve their defense and the signs of improvement will show up in Week 1. It could take some time for this group to get in a rhythm, but if the preseason was enough time then expectations need to be high for this defense.
Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney will line up opposite of each other with Malik Jackson and Andrew Billing in between them. In the secondary, the Browns are led by Denzel Ward and John Johnson III with hopes that first-round pick Greg Newsome can quickly adjust to the NFL and become a reliable corner. Speaking of first-round picks, the Browns also selected linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. He has the potential to be the best LB in the class with his massive upside. Now, it's time to see if the Browns are the team to help him reach that upside.
Keeping the Chiefs to 30 points is going to be difficult with Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce all returning with a revamped offensive line, but it's possible. The Chiefs were the 16th best team at scoring touchdowns in the red zone last season and the Browns were the 16th best team at stopping touchdowns in the red zone. Improved offense meets improved defense, can the Browns keep the Chiefs to field goals inside the 20-yard line?
Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney combine for at least 4.0 sacks
If the Browns' defense truly has hopes of beating the Chiefs then they need pressure from their best players. Myles Garrett is a true superstar on defense and his defensive counterpart, Jadeveon Clowney, looks to prove he can still be among the best defensive ends in the game. Both players are former number one overall picks, but they've had different career paths.
Jadeveon Clowney made his debut in 2014 after being selected by the Houston Texans first overall. Since then, he has only 32.0 sacks for his entire career while Garrett has 42.5 in three fewer seasons. Clowney has had two of his seven seasons derailed by injury. In his rookie year, he only played four games and didn't record a single sack. The next injured season didn't come until 2020, this past season. Clowney played in eight games for the Tennessee Titans and didn't record a single sack. The Browns are taking a flier on him this season with the intention of finally getting his number one overall potential to play out on the field for a full season.
Myles Garrett will be the best defensive end Clowney has ever been the opposite of. There's no telling if that will help Clowney improve, but having great players around you will always raise your level. Garrett is coming off his third straight season with double-digit sacks as his career path has been excellent. Garrett is the face of the Browns defense and should be for years to come. He's among the best pass rushers in the league and this could be the best defense he's played on in his career. Expect another big season for him, if not his best one yet.
For this duo to record at least four sacks, it will likely require at least two from each. Sure, one player could go for three or even four, but having both of them tally a couple seems like the easiest way. Garrett has had nine games with two sacks and one game with three. Clowney has had five total games with two sacks. This Chiefs offensive line is a top ten group as a whole, but Mike Remmers and Orlando Brown Jr. are beatable for the Browns duo.
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will have more receiving yards than rushing yards
This game between two of the top offensive teams in the NFL could very well be a shootout. Shootouts require a lot of throwing and the Browns have two elite running backs that can catch the ball. This duo is probably the best in the league because of how well they can run AND receive when needed. The Chiefs don't have the defenders to slow down Beckham Jr. and Landry while also stopping Chubb and Hunt.
No team in the NFL gave up more receiving yards to running backs last season than the Chiefs. They didn't have a way to slow running backs down after the catch and facing this Browns duo in Week 1 can go two ways. The Browns either do well throwing to their running backs or they do extremely well. Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb are going to be ready when Baker Mayfield gets into some trouble and has to dump it off. There will also be designed running back routes that should lead to some high upside plays.
The Browns finish within three points of the betting line
The Kansas City Chiefs are favored over the Cleveland Browns in Week 1 by six points. If the Chiefs win by one touchdown plus the extra point then Browns bettors lose out, and this one is shaping up to be extremely close. Elite offenses meet up with the Chiefs having the advantage on that side. Solid defenses meet with the Browns having the advantage there. Can the Browns do enough to win?
Even if they can't pull out the victory, they have a good chance of beating the line of -6 for the Chiefs. Getting within three points gives the Browns a loss either way, but it will be anywhere from three points to nine points. The Chiefs aren't going to be running away with this one. It's going to be a great game overall.
