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The Colorado State Rams (0-4) travel to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack (2-3) in a Mountain West Conference matchup on Friday night. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 ET. Below we continue our College Football odds series with a Colorado State-Nevada prediction and pick.
Colorado State is still looking for their first win of the season. The Rams were humbled at home last week in a 41-10 loss to Sacramento State. Colorado State has yet to play a conference game this year. The Rams are 0-4 against the spread through four weeks.
Nevada is 2-3 this season and are coming off a 48-20 loss at Air Force. Nevada is 0-1 in Mountain West Conference play thanks to last week's loss to the Falcons. After starting the season 2-0 the Wolfpack have lost three straight games. Through five weeks Nevada is 2-3 against the spread.
Here are the Colorado State-Nevada college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Colorado State-Nevada Odds
Colorado State: +3.5 (-110)
Nevada: -3.5 (-110)
Over: 44.5 (-105)
Under: 44.5 (-115)
Why Colorado State Could Cover The Spread
Colorado State is in the midst of a brutal start to the season. The Rams have yet to win a game and their closest game was a 15-point loss to Middle Tennessee. This week's matchup against Nevada is the first conference matchup of the season for the Rams. Colorado State figures to be very familiar with the Wolf Pack given head coach Jay Norvell's history with Nevada. Norvell coached the Wolf Pack for five seasons before jumping ship for the Rams this offseason.
Colorado State has been bad on both sides of the ball through five weeks but have been particularly inept on offense. The Rams are averaging just 10.8 points per game. Not only is that the lowest-scoring offense in the Mountain West, it is the second-lowest mark in all of College Football. Colorado State is dead last in all of College Football in yards per game. While their passing offense has been below average, the run game is where the biggest concerns lie.
The Rams are currently averaging 46 rushing yards per game this season. That is last in FBS by a considerable margin. How considerable? The second-worst rushing offense belongs to Old Dominion… a team averaging 71 rushing yards per game. Colorado State has not been able to get anything going on the ground this season – evidenced by their minuscule 1.4 yards per attempt. Leading rusher A'jon Vivens has racked up just 107 yards on 32 attempts this season. The team has yet to record a rushing touchdown.
Perhaps the biggest reason for their paltry rushing stats is the -81 yards rushing attributed to quarterback Clay Millen. Millen has been sacked 24 times in the Rams' four games this season. On his most recent sack, he was injured and is likely to miss Friday's game. In his absence backup quarterback, Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi completed 6-15 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown. Whether or not he is able to spark some life into the Rams' offense will go a long way in making a Colorado State-Nevada prediction.
Why Nevada Could Cover The Spread
Nevada started the season strong with two straight wins but have now dropped three games in a row. The Wolf Pack have been just as bad as the Rams on defense (they allow 415 yards per game) but they've at least shown the ability to put up points. Although they were shut out against a tough Iowa defense, the Wolf Pack have eclipsed 20 points in all of their other four games.
Offensively, Nevada has a balanced attack led by senior running back Toa Taua. The 5'9″ bruiser has rushed for 350 yards and 5 touchdowns through five games. He's coming off a 7 carry – 73-yard performance in their loss to Air Force and is a prime candidate to exploit a vulnerable Rams defense. Averaging 4.8 yards per carry, the Wolf Pack will likely rely on his groundwork early and often.
If Nevada is going to cover against Colorado State, it will be because of their defense. As mentioned earlier, the Rams have been very vulnerable to the pass rush. They've allowed nearly 8 sacks per game which is last in College Football. This is a juicy matchup for leading pass rusher Dom Peterson. The senior defensive tackle leads the team with 4 sacks this season. Whether or not he can bring pressure will go a long way in making a Colorado State-Nevada prediction.
Final Colorado State-Nevada Prediction & Pick
Colorado State has been abysmal to start the year and have been particularly inept on the offensive line. If Nevada is able to bring pressure on the Rams' freshman quarterback, a raunchy home crowd could be too much for Colorado State to overcome. Nevada has looked bad in their recent string of losses but look for the Wolf Pack to defend their home turf and cover the 3.5 with ease.
Final Colorado State-Nevada Prediction & Pick: Nevada Wolf Pack -3.5 (-110)
