The Miami Hurricanes are set to face the Pittsburgh Panthers this weekend. Check out our college football odds series, which includes our Miami-Pittsburgh prediction, odds, and pick.

Miami is drifting through a deeply disappointing season. It is true that the Hurricanes' ceiling was lowered to a considerable degree when quarterback D'Eriq King was injured. King had the capacity to lift the Canes to a greater height. Though it became apparent in September that Miami was going to struggle even with King on the field, the transfer from Houston still gave the Canes more upside.

Miami is struggling, however, mostly because it is not a good defensive team. The offense is secondary. Head coach Manny Diaz is a former defensive coordinator, and he has plainly failed to cultivate a remotely competent defense in Coral Gables. This is a central reason why Diaz is on the hot seat, even though he is a native son of Miami and a guy everyone in the program wanted to succeed when he took over for Mark Richt a few years ago. Miami was able to upset North Carolina State this past weekend, 31-30, with backup quarterback Tyler Van Dyke throwing for four touchdowns and over 300 yards, but N.C. State mistakes helped The U pull out that victory. Even the wins feel fragile and unlikely. That's not where Miami football expects to be.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is authoring one of the feel-good stories of the 2021 college football season. The Panthers faced a moment of truth against Clemson this past weekend. Past Pitt teams would have faltered under pressure, but the 2021 Panthers played a steady and disciplined game, easily stopping the toothless Tigers.

Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett is a contender for ACC Player of the Year. If he continues to thrive, he could become a Heisman Trophy finalist. Pat Narduzzi has the Panthers playing noticeably consistent football. Pitt lost to Western Michigan earlier in the season but has since managed to avoid the step-on-a-rake loss which has historically plagued the program.

Here’s how the bookmakers have set the Miami-Pittsburgh odds:

College Football odds: Miami-Pittsburgh Odds

Miami: +9.5 (-112)

Pittsburgh: -9.5 (-108)

Over: 61.5 (-110)

Under: 61.5 (-110)

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Why Miami Could Cover the Spread

Tyler Van Dyke has been very good — better than the Hurricanes reasonably could have expected — since relieving D'Eriq King. He has enabled this Miami offense to remain reasonably potent. He has made critical mistakes, which should be expected of a backup, but he shows an ability to mentally turn the page and forget about his errors. He bounces back and wipes out a mistake with a big play on his next drive. Keep this in mind when considering a Miami-Pittsburgh pick.

Pittsburgh is also coming off the Clemson win. The Panthers are known for letting down their guard just when it seems they can attain bigger goals. Pittsburgh is the clear leader in the ACC Coastal Division and has a real shot at the ACC championship and a New Year's Six bowl game. It would be typical of past Pitt teams to lose here. No one would be all that shocked if the Panthers slipped on a banana peel again.

Why Pittsburgh Could Cover the Spread

The Panthers are not the old Panthers. This Pittsburgh team learned from the Western Michigan loss and has managed to become steadier, more physical, and more reliable than past Pitt teams. The Clemson game was another face-plant situation, a game past Pitt teams would have squandered. This team manhandled Clemson in a game which — though not a blowout — was not especially close down the stretch. With Kenny Pickett under center, Pitt certainly has the upper hand here. The difference is that this Pitt team doesn't seem likely to waste a golden opportunity. This is part of why the college football odds are what they are for this game.

Final Miami-Pittsburgh Prediction & Pick

If you trust Pittsburgh to remain steady after the Clemson win, you should have no problem picking the Panthers over a Miami team which has a leaky defense and will send its backup quarterback onto the field once again. If you are skittish about taking Pitt in this situation, it's understandable. If the Panthers do win this game, doubts about them will definitely begin to recede. We're going with the Panthers in our Miami-Pittsburgh pick.

Final Miami-Pittsburgh Pick: Pittsburgh -9.5