How many people expected the Detroit Tigers to be here? If you're raising your hand, you're probably lying because almost no one thought the Tigers would be in the playoff race let alone in the dance. With the 2024 MLB playoffs a day away, Detroit is gearing up for its first playoff series in 10 years as the Houston Astros await them in the AL Wild Card Series.
The Tigers had a losing record entering the final week of August but a blistering last five weeks of the regular season led them to October baseball. Few teams will have as much momentum as Detroit entering the MLB playoffs and perhaps none have less to lose than the team that broke the league's joint-longest playoff drought.
While the vibes are high in Detroit, a date with a postseason juggernaut awaits them. The Astros will give no edge to the Tigers, especially at home. A three-game series can quickly turn into two if the Astros do whatever they want. That tends to happen more often than not.
Something has to give in this series and Tigers fans hope their young up-and-coming squad can pull off the upset and keep this fairytale season going. Detroit might need some luck on their side to defeat Houston. Regardless, let's get to our Tigers bold predictions for the AL Wild Card Series.
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Detroit's starters carry the staff
It is often said that pitching wins championships. You need to score runs to win, but great pitching can undoubtedly keep teams in games and at the very least steal one. If a team is lucky, that stolen one could be the series clincher.
The Tigers were carried by their pitching staff over the last month of the season. Detroit posted a 2.79 ERA, fourth-best in the majors in September. It helped the Tigers win more games than any other team during the season's final month.
For the season, Tigers starters had the fourth-best ERA at 3.69. Much of that success came from ace Tarik Skubal who is the likely AL Cy Young Award winner. If Detroit is to win this series, it probably comes down to Skubal's performance in Game 1.
It's a toss-up after Skubal but the Tigers are well-equipped to put the pieces in place as they go. The use of certain bullpen arms could be avoided with a star outing from Skubal. That could alter Detroit's plans for the rest of the series, especially if they are in need of only one win in two games.
Assuming Skubal delivers a quality start, the Tigers will only need four or five innings from their Game 2 starter. Casey Mize or Reese Olson can provide that, or maybe they have Jackson Jobe or Beau Brieske piggyback off an opener for multiple innings. Whatever Detroit decides, its success likely comes down to how well the pitching staff holds. The Astros won't score more than three combined runs on Tigers starters.
Tigers closer shuts the door
Detroit's bullpen has been lights out lately and the Tigers relied on their relievers a lot during the end of the season. No bullpen threw more innings in September than Detroit's and Tigers relievers held the third-best ERA among bullpens during the month with a 2.41 mark.
The Tigers found a closer they can trust in Jason Foley who's stepped up in a big way down the stretch. Foley prepared himself for a major role in the MLB playoffs with plenty of high-leverage outings to close the regular season.
Foley secured nine saves in September, three of them during the final week of the season to help the Tigers secure several key victories. He finished with 28 saves in 32 opportunities and ended the year nicely by bouncing back from a few rough outings.
Foley's second half was indicative of Detroit's as a team. The 28-year-old had a 2.70 ERA since the All-Star break and served as arguably the Tigers' best reliever when games mattered most.
Foley appeared in two games against the Astros this year, allowing one unearned run across two innings. The Tigers will want Foley in any high-leverage situation but will have to be strategic with where they use him. He's recorded more than three outs in a single appearance only twice since July. He'll record two saves in the series.
Rookie is clutch for offense
The MLB playoffs are a place where players make a name for themself. Unknowns become regulars in conversation when the bright lights of October arrive. The Tigers have a few candidates who are ready for the spotlight. Rookie second baseman Colt Keith is a name to watch.
Keith has shown flashes since his MLB debut on Opening Day and has had strong months throughout his rookie campaign. He had a 1.048 OPS in July and hit .342 in May, displaying what he can do at the plate over a hot three or four-week stretch. Why can’t he replicate that in October?
Keith seems like a player built for the moment and he's already taken a stab at the Astros this year. He recorded nine hits in 20 at-bats against Houston, including a four-hit game, one of three he had.
Keith cooled off to finish the regular season, collecting only three hits in his last eight games. He was swinging a hot bat before that, posting a .310/.355/.379 slash line in 15 games from Sep. 2 to Sept. 20.
Colt Keith can be a significant figure in the middle of Detroit's lineup. The Tigers might need him to defeat the Astros, especially if the games are tight. Keith will provide a spark for the Tigers and record multiple extra-base hits in Game 1.
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