We have an elite pitching matchup when the Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates square off in the rubber match of this series. Ryne Nelson, who can't seem to lose over his last five outings, will face Paul Skenes, the front-runner to be National League Rookie of the Year and Cy Young. The Diamondbacks and Pirates are battling for the final spot in the National League Wild Card race, but the Diamondbacks have the upper hand with a 2.5-game lead. The teams split the first two games of the series, with the Pirates winning Saturday night after losing 9-8 on Friday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Diamondbacks-Pirates prediction and pick.
Diamondbacks-Pirates Projected Starters
Ryne Nelson vs. Paul Skenes
Ryne Nelson (8-6) with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP.
Last Start: vs. Nationals, 7 IP, 9 SO, 2 H, 2 BB, 0 ER
2024 Road Splits: (4-3) with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP.
Paul Skenes (6-1) with a 1.90 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP.
Last Start: @ Astros, 6 IP, 6 SO, 5 H, 3 BB, 1 ER
2024 Home Splits: (3-1) with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks-Pirates Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-175)
Moneyline: +120
Pittsburgh Pirates: -1.5 (+145)
Moneyline: -150
Over: 7.5 (-120)
Under: 7.5 (+100)
How to Watch Diamondbacks vs. Pirates
Time: 1:35 PM ET/10:35 AM PT
TV: ARID, SNP
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Diamondbacks Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Diamondbacks dominated the Pirates over their last ten meetings, including a series win at home earlier this week. The teams' only meetings this year give them six games in ten days, with the Diamondbacks coming out on top in the first two games last week before the Pirates won the rubber match. The Diamondbacks' loss on Saturday helped the Pirates a bit, but Arizona has still won seven of their last ten meetings.
It's hard to ignore Nelson's recent success, as the Diamondbacks have won five consecutive starts. Arizona has also been an elite offensive team over their last ten games, averaging 7.9 runs/nine. It's easy to put up that many runs when their team average is .309 with a .371 on-base percentage.
Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
Paul Skenes. We can keep it simple and say that's the only reason the Pirates will win this matchup, but it's better to dive into his numbers. The Pirates' ace has been lights out this season, losing only one of his decisions in a game where he pitched 8 1/3 innings, allowed four hits, and two earned runs. Skenes has done everything he can to drag the Pirates into the playoff race this season, but he eventually will need his offense to help him out. The Pirates have lost three of Skenes' ten starts this season, and in each loss, they scored just one run.
The Pirates win when their offense shows up for Skenes. The question is whether they can do it against a red-hot Nelson. They are averaging just 3.6 runs/nine over their last ten games against right-handed pitching and could be lucky to be getting that many runs with their abysmal .217 batting average. The Pirates need a dominant Skenes performance to pull this one out.
Final Diamondbacks-Pirates Prediction & Pick
The Diamondbacks offense has been so dominant that we're questioning whether even Skenes can stop them. They are averaging 8.6 runs/nine against right-handed pitching over their last ten games, which is the most dominant run in baseball this season. It's hard to bet against Skenes but even harder to bet against the Diamondbacks offense.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Diamondbacks-Pirates Prediction & Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+130)
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