We’re back with our betting predictions and picks for the UFC Abu Dhabi Prelims as we turn our attention towards this next fight in the Lightweight (155) Division. Mohammad Yahya of UAE will face off against Brazil’s Kaue Fernandes in an exciting matchup of fresh prospects. Check out our UFC odds series for our Yahya-Fernandes prediction and pick.
Mohammad Yahya (12-4) is 0-1 in the UFC following a loss to Trevor Peek in his debut back in October 2023. Prior to that, he rode a five-fight winning streak in various organizations, including a 1-1 stint under Bellator. Now, he’ll look to improve his stock with a huge upset win over another promising prospect. Yahya stands 5’9″ with a 73-inch reach.
Kaue Fernandes (8-2) will also be looking for his first UFC win following a loss to Marc Diakiese in his debut. The loss was a split decision, however, and Fernandes outdid himself in the debut. He’s a former Shooto Brasil fighter and given the betting odds, his stock has only risen since his arrival to the UFC. Fernandes stands 5’9″ with a 73-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Abu Dhabi Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Abu Dhabi Odds: Mohammad Yahya-Kaue Fernandes Odds
Mohammad Yahya: +300
Kaue Fernandes: -400
Over 1.5 rounds: -148
Under 1.5 rounds: +118
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Why Mohammad Yahya Will Win
Mohammad Yahya will be making his second UFC walk after coming up short against Trevor Peek during his debut. He unfortunately ran into a very motivated version of Peek who was willing to meet Yahya in the middle and exchange blows with him. Yahya comes from a kickboxing background and he’s very adept at distance management and using his kicks to leverage position. He’s very smart when it comes to engaging his opponent and if he senses the finish, he’ll jump in quickly to finish the job with his hands. With seven wins by knockout, he’ll be looking for a similar result in this one.
To be successful here, Yahya will have to dial back his aggression and allow for his opponent to take chances and make mistakes. Fernandes is a very dangerous counter puncher and if Yahya isn’t careful, he could get caught overextending himself or leaning too far forward. While he’s not likely to force the takedowns at any point, expect his defense to be very sound in keeping this fight on the feet. Yahya does tremendous work fighting from the clinch and he can certainly slow Fernandes’ offensive attack if he can stifle him from there.
Why Kaue Fernandes Will Win
Kaue Fernandes had a rough go during his debut fight against Marc Diakiase as he was held down on the ground and couldn’t do much to stand back up or turn the tide in his favor. Still, he managed to keep the scorecards to a split decision, but it was more on a count of Diakiese’s inactivity on the ground. His opponent here won’t be as keen to hit the mats, so we should expect to see more of Fernandes’ striking game open up against Yahya. Half of his wins have come by way of knockout and his frame is deceptively powerful for this weight class.
Kaue Fernandes comes in as the heavy betting favorite due to his tough chin and never being finished in a fight. He’s very game to stand and trade punches as he should emerge as the more technical striker of the two. If Fernandes can manage to control the striking distance through the first round, he should put himself in a great position to eventually finish or at least drop his opponent on the feet. Expect Fernandes to look for the counter punch and don’t count him out if he’s under fire at any point.
Final Mohammad Yahya-Kaue Fernandes Prediction & Pick
Two exciting strikers are set to clash during this one and following losses in their UFC debuts, both men will be eager to make a statement during the Prelims. Both are classically-trained kickboxers and will be dangerous with their knockout blows early in this fight.
Mohammad Yahya has a chance for the massive upset here if he can land his right hand flush. He leads aggressively with his jab and explodes with his right hand, so don’t be surprised if he can catch Fernandes and jump on for the early finish.
However, Kaue Fernandes is the more technical striker here and he has all the tools to control the range and hang on the outside for a three-round decision. The betting lines are a bit juiced in his direction and it may be dicey considering Yahya’s ability to knock opponents out. Instead, we’ll side with the total over of rounds in this fight as I see neither fighter giving an inch in the striking distance.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Mohammad Yahya-Kaue Fernandes Prediction & Pick: OVER 1.5 Rounds (-145)
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