The Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees have been battling for the top spot in the American League East since the beginning of the season, with the Orioles sitting half a game back. Their recent form against the Cleveland Guardians hasn't helped, as the Guardians took the series' first two games. The Guardians are six games up on the Royals for the lead of the American League Central. The Guardians have been on a roll lately, winning eight of their last ten games. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with an Orioles-Guardians prediction and pick.
Orioles-Guardians Projected Starters
Corbin Burnes vs. Gavin Williams
Corbin Burnes (11-4) with a 2.47 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP.
Last Start: vs. Blue Jays, 6 2/3 IP, 7 SO, 4 H, 3 BB, 2 ER
2024 Road Splits: (5-2) with a 2.89 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP.
Gavin Williams (1-3) with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP.
Last Start: @ Tigers, 5 IP, 8 SO, 2 H, 1 BB, 0 ER
2024 Home Splits: (0-3) with a 7.24 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Orioles-Guardians Odds
Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+118)
Moneyline: -142
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-142)
Moneyline: +120
Over: 7.5 (-122)
Under: 7.5 (+100)
How to Watch Orioles vs. Guardians
Time: 1:40 PM ET/10:40 AM PT
TV: MASN, MLB Network, Bally Sports Network
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Orioles Will Cover The Spread/Win
Gavin Williams has been a valuable starter for the Guardians this season, but there is a disturbing trend for the Guardians. Progressive Field has been a house of horrors for Williams, owning an abysmal 7.24 ERA at home. It's unbelievable that he is much better on the road, with a 0.59 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. The Guardians have lost all three games Williams started at home by a combined score of 18-2.
The Orioles need their pitching to start stepping up, as their offense has been on fire. Their record doesn't reflect the offense's success, as they own just a 5-5 record over their last ten games. If the pitching improves the offense will carry the load. They hit .265 with a .356 on-base percentage over that span, averaging 6.3 runs/nine
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
It's been the opposite of Williams for Burnes, as he is lights-out in the friendly confines of Camden Yards but isn't as good on the road. Burnes' numbers have been good on the road, but he at least looks a little more human when he isn't in Baltimore.
The Guardians need to get to Burnes early to win this game. It isn't the most favorable matchup for them, but if they can get the two starters out of the game with a lead, they hold the advantage in the bullpen. The Guardians bullpen has a 2.25 ERA this season, while the Orioles have a 4.18 ERA over their last three games.
Final Orioles-Guardians Prediction & Pick
The Orioles risk falling down the AL East standings if they don't find a way to start stealing some victories. There's no better opportunity to do it than with Corbin Burnes on the mound against Gavin Williams. If the Orioles can continue Williams' misery at Progressive Field, they'll grab a win and keep the gap tight with the Yankees.
The only question is whether the Orioles' bullpen can hold the lead that the Orioles and Burnes give them. For that reason, we'll lean towards the over here and hope Williams and the Orioles' bullpen continue their poor form. Both teams' offenses are up to putting up plenty of runs.
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Final Orioles-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Over 7.5 (-122)
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