UFC Abu Dhabi: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov continues to roll with the Prelims as we bring you another betting prediction and pick for this next bout in the Heavyweight Division. Shamil Gaziev of Bahrain will take on Jackson Wink’s Don’Tale Mayes in a tightly-contested battle of big men. Check out our UFC odds series for our Gaziev-Mayes prediction and pick.
Shamil Gaziev (12-1) has gone 1-1 through his first two UFC fights since last year. His most recent loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik was the first of his professional career and clearly the jump in competition caught up to him. Now, he looks to bounce back against an established veteran of the division. Gaziev stands 6’4″ with a 78.5-inch reach.
Don’Tale Mayes (11-6) has gone 4-4-0-1 inside of the UFC since 2019. He’s alternated wins and losses over his last four bouts with impressive performances over Andrei Arlovski and Caio Machado during that stretch. Despite having more experience than his opponent, Mayes will look to upset as the betting underdog. Mayes stands 6’6″ with an 81-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Abu Dhabi Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Abu Dhabi Odds: Shamil Gaziev-Don’Tale Mayes Odds
Shamil Gaziev: -205
Don’Tale Mayes: +175
Over 2.5 rounds: +130
Under 2.5 rounds: -160
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Why Shamil Gaziev Will Win
Shamil Gaziev has been a highly-touted UFC prospect ever since his first-round submission finish on Dana White’s Contender Series. Immediately, he showed off his striking prowess with a knockout over Martin Buday, earning him a massive fight against a former title challenger in Jairzinho Rozenstruik. It could have been too much too fast for Gaziev as he entered a third round for the first time in his career and eventually gassed out. His opponent his no stranger to going the distance, so you’d have to imagine Gaziev’s camp was focused around improving his cardio and expecting to fight a full three rounds.
Shamil Gaziev is an extremely dangerous kickboxer and he has very fast hands for someone his size. He remains very active in the pocket with his head movement and keeps his hands moving with constant feints. Gaziev’s lead jab is his best weapon and if he can begin to find the target, he’ll sit back on it before unleashing an overhand or hook in succession. He’ll be working with a slight reach disadvantage here, so expect him to try and close the distance by tying Mayes into the clinch and along the fence.
Why Don’Tale Mayes Will Win
Don’Tale Mayes has been looking for some consistency throughout his performances but after an encouraging UD win over Caio Machado as a betting underdog in his last fight, he’s got the chance to gain some momentum with another underdog victory. Being in this position is nothing new to Mayes, but he’s proven doubters wrong in the past, hoping to do the same here. He’s a very balanced heavyweight and can hang both on the feet and on the ground. He doesn’t typically attempt many takedowns, but he’s very strong in clinch situations and can throw his weight around if needed. His greatest strength is his tough chin and 81″ reach, something he’ll look to utilize in blocking and countering Gaziev’s lead jab.
If Don’Tale Mayes learned anything from watching Gaziev’s fight tapes, it’s that he starts fast and remains on the gas for the first round or so of action. If a five-round environment, Gaziev ultimately crumbled and was completely out of his element. Mayes has reached the scorecards in his last two consecutive fights and if he can put forth another unanimous performance for three rounds, he could have Gaziev in a compromising position by the last round.
Final Shamil Gaziev-Don’Tale Mayes Prediction & Pick
This will be a fun fight between two very active and skilled heavyweights who can shut the lights off in an instant. We have to give the striking advantage to Shamil Gaziev on a count of his accuracy and willingness to exchange within the pocket. Don’Tale Mayes would benefit more from fighting this bout at range and using his reach to create distance.
With the total rounds set at 2.5, it’ll be interesting to see how quick these two fighter are to engage and whether or not we see a quick finish. The under favors Shamil Gaziev while a three-round decision would favor Don’Tale Mayes and his cardio.
For our final prediction, we’re going to take a chance on Don’Tale Mayes to outlast Shamil Gaziev in a decision here. A big hole was exposed in Gaziev’s game during the Rozenstruik fight and with Don’Tale Mayes possessing a similar physical build to his last opponent, I expect him to be smart during this fight as he looks to drag Gaziev out and test his gas tank once again.
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Final Shamil Gaziev-Don’Tale Mayes Prediction & Pick: Don’Tale Mayes (+175)
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