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Will Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson prove his worth in 2022?
Johnson is coming off a 2021 season where he saw career-highs in all major statistical categories for the Pittsburgh Steelers. In other words, he was a fantastic fantasy football option. However, with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger retiring, he will have either Mitch Trubisky, Mason Rudolph or Kenny Pickett throwing him passes.
Not to mention, Johnson will also see more competition for targets with draft picks George Pickens and Calvin Austin joining the fold. And on top of all that, Johnson is in the middle of a contract dispute as he enters the final year of his rookie deal.
With obstacles piling up in front of him, Johnson’s production is very likely going to drop off in 2022, failing to reach the impressive numbers he did a year ago.
Last season, Johnson developed into a high-volume pass-catcher, ranking tied for second in wide receiver targets (169) and fifth in catches (107). However, his relatively meager average yards per catch (10.9) led to a lower finish in receiving yards (1,161). Johnson had 15 drops in 2020, hurting his catch rate (61.1). Last year he improved his catch rate to 63.3, helped by only seven drops.
Johnson had a floor of seven catches in nine starts last season, but he gained over 100 yards in only three games. Pittsburgh gave him double-digit targets in 13 matchups.
After finishing eighth in fantasy scoring (276.4) in PPR leagues, Johnson comes off the board as the 14th wideout with an ADP of 34 in the NFFC in late May. I could see fewer passes by the Steelers this season after the change at quarterback, creating a natural regression in stats by their wide receivers. Johnson fits better as WR2 with the skill set to be a 6/60 guy in many weeks, scoring between five and seven touchdowns.
Diontae Johnson 2022 Fantasy Football Outlook
Johnson is currently electing to not participate much in the Steelers’ preseason sessions. However, he is still present and participating a little. This is all because of his contract issues.
Johnson’s rookie deal is up after the season, and he’s looking for an expensive extension. This shouldn’t necessarily affect his play, and he’ll likely still play most of or all of the season, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
Plus, rookies Pickens and Austin are making some great plays, boosting their cases to be higher up on the depth chart. Don’t be surprised if Johnson doesn’t finish as the top receiver (stat-wise) for the Steelers in 2022.
Johnson will likely have fewer total points in fantasy this year, and it will be directly related to target share. With multiple competitive options at the wideout position now, he simply may not get as much attention. One would expect Johnson to receive anywhere from 100-130 targets and only haul in 90-100 for receptions. I
It’s not a huge drop, but it’s fantasy points that he’s losing. But red-zone ability to make contested catches, paired with his speed and acceleration, could definitely open up the playbook in key moments.
Johnson finished as WR8 in PPR fantasy football leagues in 2021. Unfortunately, with the odds stacked against him, Johnson has slid to the projected WR15 on average. This puts him as a low WR2 in most lineups with a chance to be higher up. Still, he’s likely going to have several down weeks and may not be a smart start in some matchups.
A change in the Steelers' offensive philosophy could alter how Fantasy managers view Johnson come draft time. Over the past two seasons, Johnson has averaged 10.6 targets per game but struggled to play efficiently. Specifically, his disappointing 63% catch rate is made worse considering his average depth of target was 8.5 yards. Ben Roethlisberger's departure may usher in a more balanced era of Steelers football, meaning fewer targets for everyone including Johnson, especially if Pittsburgh tries to spread the ball more evenly among its pass-catchers.
There's risk of Johnson performing more like a middle- to low-end No. 2 receiver rather than the top-10 PPR dynamo we witnessed in 2021. As such, be ready to settle on him around 45th to 50th overall in PPR leagues and at least 10 picks later in non-PPR competition.
