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The dream scenario for Ottawa Senators fans has already happened before the Stanley Cup Playoffs have even commenced. The fanbase has been waiting for the rebuild to finally break through, and the Senators have proven to everyone that they are back in contention. They've even surpassed the Montreal Canadiens, whose fans seemed to be battling Ottawa's to prove which team is better emerging from their respective rebuilds.
The Senators would love to advance a few rounds, but making the playoffs is already a massive step in the right direction. Ottawa's playoff expectations will likely grow if the matchups stay as they are, with two games remaining in the season. Ottawa will finish in the top wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference, although they came close to surpassing the Florida Panthers for third in the Atlantic Division.
There is a possibility that the Tampa Bay Lightning will surpass the Toronto Maple Leafs for first in the Atlantic, but that is unlikely. The highest probability is a Battle of Ontario in the first round, which is one that the Senators nor their fans will accept to lose.
Facing the Maple Leafs is a dream scenario for Senators
While it isn't guaranteed, the Senators and their fans should hope for a first-round series with the Maple Leafs. Toronto will likely win the Atlantic Division for the first time in over two decades, but that shouldn't scare Ottawa. The Leafs have had better teams over the past few seasons, and haven't had much postseason success. Maybe this team is better built for the playoffs with Craig Berube at the helm. However, the same core has fallen short against plenty of teams with nothing to lose.
It happened in 2020 when they lost to the Columbus Blue Jackets in the qualifying round. It happened again in 2021 when they blew a 3-1 series lead against the Canadiens. This year will be the eighth-straight playoff appearance for this group, and they have won one playoff series when the Lightning were at their weakest. When comparing the Maple Leafs with the other Atlantic Division foes, Toronto should be the team that Ottawa wants to face.
After a long rebuild, the Senators are in their first year of playoff contention. They were the “little brothers” to the Maple Leafs for most of that stretch, but the tide has been starting to turn over the past couple of seasons. The Senators won three of four games against the Leafs in 2023-24, including two at Scotiabank Arena. It seemed enough to get the Senators on the Leafs' radar, but it could be just a poor matchup for Toronto.
The Senators swept the season series in 2024-25 by a combined score of 9-3. With their revamped goaltending and motivated offense, the Senators might be the Leafs' worst-case scenario in the playoffs, before even mentioning Toronto's history against underdogs. The question is: are the Sens even “underdogs” in this matchup?
Linus Ullmark continuing his playoff struggles is a nightmare scenario
Over the past four years, Linus Ullmark has been one of the league's top goaltenders. It was why Senators fans were ecstatic when they acquired him for basically nothing from the Boston Bruins at the end of last season. While the Bruins struggled through their season without their old tandem and fell to the bottom of the East, the Senators thrived. Ullmark passed all tests this season but still has to ace one more to make the acquisition successful.
If there was one area where Ullmark failed in Boston, it was during the playoffs. He played 10 games for the Bruins over three playoff seasons, recording a 3.59 goals-against average and a .887 save percentage. He won just three of nine games for a team that had Stanley Cup aspirations each year. Compare that with his worst regular season in Boston, being a 2.58 goals-against average and a .915 save percentage, and there's reason to believe he could have some playoff demons to face.
The Bruins aren't innocent in these struggles. Goaltenders are notoriously creatures of habit, and Boston's decision to stray from their tandem style in the playoffs might have been an issue. The Bruins were afraid to go against the norm, so they gave their goaltenders a lion's share of the games instead of going game-for-game. Ullmark was always good to start the series, but struggled as the games wore on.
Ullmark is more prepared for the grind this year and knows he is the leading man heading into the first round. Does that mean fatigue won't set in? No, but it could help him with the preparation. The Senators' success rests on Ullmark, and finding out he isn't a playoff goaltender would be worrisome.
