One of the most talked about teams in the NFL since the offseason officially began back on March 13 has been the Atlanta Falcons. And it all has to do with their quarterbacks. Yes, quarterbacks, as in plural.
After three 7-10 seasons for the Falcons, attempting to find their next great signal caller — or even one that could give them a winning record — was no easy feat. Matt Ryan was unceremoniously traded to the Indianapolis Colts after he was more or less jilted when the team attempted to lure the Houston Texans into a trade for Deshaun Watson. Then gap starters of Marcus Mariota, Taylor Heinicke, and a wing-and-prayer third-round draft pick of Desmond Ridder went nowhere.
The Falcons then kicked third-year head coach Arthur Smith out the door and brought in former defensive coordinator Raheem Morris from the Los Angeles Rams. With him, eventually came what should be the Falcons' 2024 starting quarterback, Kirk Cousins.
As much as this is a jolt to the entire Falcons roster for the upcoming season, instantly making them a contender to win their division and make the playoffs for the first time since 2017, it's one of the riskiest moves of the entire offseason for any team.
Kirk Cousins is the Falcons' riskiest move of the 2024 NFL offseason
Signing new players, no matter at what juncture in their career, is risky. With rookies, it's the unproven element. With veterans, it's whether they can still produce. But what about when you have a veteran coming off a torn Achilles tendon injury? Well, that's really dicey.
During a Week 8 matchup against division rival Green Bay last year, playing for the Minnesota Vikings, Cousins suffered the Achilles injury. Which means by the time the 2024 regular season begins, he won't even be a year removed from the injury.
Cousins, who will be 36 years old by the time the Falcons take the field in the home opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, September 8, says he should be good to go by then, though.
“I've told people for a while that if the Super Bowl were today, I'm playing,” Cousins said, according to NBC Sports. “And that goes back probably — I think when I first got here, I was working out, and we got maybe a week or two into my rehab, and I did some drills where I said, ‘Hey, if the Super Bowl were today, I'm playing.' And they seemed to agree.”
For the last five years, Cousins has been a top-five quarterback in production. He's thrown for just under 19,000 yards (5th), while having 141 touchdown passes (3rd) for a 67.4 percent completion percentage (4th). He was one of the best quarterbacks in the league last year, having one of the most productive seasons of his career until he got injured. But he's definitely on the back end of his career. Remember when Ryan began to regress? It was right around his last season in Atlanta when he turned 36. Granted, not all quarterbacks are created equal, but it's something to keep in mind.
Kirk Cousins' risk factor goes beyond Achilles injury
Once you get past the significant injury and the age factor coupled with it, there are still other risk factors that are now just coming to light from Cousins' signing, albeit by the team's own doing.
The Falcons are currently awaiting the NFL's punishment on the alleged tampering that took place between the team and Cousins. That of which Cousins pretty much admitted to during his introductory press conference back in March.
“There are great people here,” Cousins said. “And it’s not just the football team. I mean, I’m looking at the support staff. Meeting — calling, yesterday, calling our head athletic trainer, talking to our head of P.R. I’m thinking, we got good people here. And that’s exciting to be a part of.”
NFL rules don't allow for that sort of communication to take place until the official legal tampering period begins, which this year was on March 10.
Cousins was literally one of the first players to be announced to sign with a team once free agency opened, making many speculate that tampering was involved. The Falcons weren't the only team, however, as the Philadelphia Eagles were another, yet Atlanta's pending punishment is supposed to be much more severe than Philadelphia's, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.
Did the Falcons' pending tampering punishment lead to Michael Penix Jr.'s drafting?
Cousins' free agent signing is one that is definitely multi-faceted. But did the Falcons know even back during the draft what kind of punishment could be waiting for them? The tampering allegations were already out by then; in fact, the NFL paused the ruling on the situation for some time after the draft.
The NFL doesn't take tampering lightly, as they've disciplined teams pretty well in the past. The Miami Dolphins had to forfeit a 2023 first-round pick and 2024 third-round pick for tampering with Tom Brady and Sean Payton back from 2019 to 2022. Also, multiple people within the organization were fined hefty dollar amounts, including owner Stephen Ross for $1.5 million.
The Kansas City Chiefs were another team that lost draft picks when they tampered with wide receiver Jeremy Maclin back in 2015. Between the team, Andy Reid, and then-general manager John Dorsey, they were fined a combined $350,000 and lost the 2016 third-round pick and 2017 sixth-round pick.
Might the Falcons' tampering of Cousins be more egregious than these? Perhaps Morris and Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot were not only looking out for Cousins' eventual replacement, but maybe they also knew they wouldn't have a chance to get one in the coming years. If Atlanta is potentially going to lose draft capital in the sum of at least one first-round pick, that's pretty significant. Penix's pick may have been the result based much more on the future than anyone originally perceived.
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