In this highly competitive fantasy football landscape, understanding which running backs may be overvalued based on their 2025 average draft position (ADP) is crucial for gaining an edge. While some backs come off the board early due to recent success or hype, not all projections justify their draft prices. Avoiding these players can help roster builders maximize value and potential upside. Here are five running backs who appear overvalued in most drafts based on their current ADP trends and underlying concerns heading into 2025.
1. Kyren Williams
Kyren Williams enters the 2025 fantasy season with an ADP inside the top 15 picks in many formats, a dangerous range for a player with multiple red flags. Despite a breakout 2024 season that put him among the league’s top backs, Williams now faces more competition with the addition of Davante Adams in Los Angeles. Also, the Rams drafted Blake Corum and Jarquez Hunter in recent drafts, both talented runners who are poised to siphon meaningful snaps and goal-line touches away. While Williams recently signed a contract extension signaling commitment from the team, his heavy reliance on volume makes him vulnerable if his workload diminishes. This, combined with an offensive line that wasn’t dominant last year and a tougher schedule ahead, suggests Williams’ high draft price could come with costly regression risks, making him an overvalued selection in early rounds.
2. Breece Hall
Coming off a strong but injury-plagued stretch in recent seasons, Breece Hall’s ADP has climbed considerably, landing him frequently in the first few rounds. Hall possesses elite talent and explosiveness, but the New York Jets have openly committed to a two-back system, pairing Hall with rising star Braelon Allen. This shared backfield approach implies significant split opportunities that will cap Hall’s ceiling. Without a clear bell-cow role, Hall’s weekly consistency becomes less reliable, especially in PPR leagues where target volume dictates scoring upside. Moreover, after missing extended time due to injury, Hall carries an elevated health risk. Due to these factors—workload uncertainty and injury history—Hall’s current ADP oversells his projected weekly value, marking him as an overvalued option.
3. Ashton Jeanty
Ashton Jeanty is widely regarded as a promising rookie with impressive athletic traits, which has driven up his draft stock substantially, placing him around mid-round ADP levels as a budding bell-cow back. However, the lack of NFL experience paired with a run-blocking unit that was inconsistent in 2024 raises legitimate questions about Jeanty’s short-term fantasy impact. He must prove durability over a full season and overcome the adjustment period most rookies face transitioning to the professional level. While he has potential, banking on him delivering RB1 production in his first year is a risky proposition. Jeanty’s ADP currently suggests more guaranteed upside than he can realistically offer, branding him an overvalued pick for 2025 drafts.
4. James Cook
James Cook, despite showing big-play ability and a strong receiving skill set, reflects his current ADP. His ADP has climbed as managers buy into his what he accomplished in 2024 with 18 touchdowns and his versatility and involvement in passing downs, but he rarely enjoys a full bell-cow role. Cook’s workload is volatile, and with the team likely to distribute carries to Ray Davis who shined when Cook was out due to injury last season, his week-to-week floor is questionable. The lack of substantial carry volume and touchdown dependency means Cook’s current draft price is inflated compared to his probable production ceiling, making him a notable overvalued running back this season.
5. Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry’s story is one of a legendary workhorse facing the realities of age and an evolving offense. While Henry’s ADP remains high, frequently landing him at the end of round one or early round two, 2025 marks his age-31 season, a milestone where physical decline typically accelerates for power backs. Although Henry posted a solid RB4 finish last year, his workload was managed and he lacked some of the explosiveness characteristic of his peak years. Moreover, the Baltimore Ravens’ offensive scheme continues to evolve with a more diverse weapons on offense, which could further limit Henry’s touches. With durability concerns and potential reduced volume, Henry’s elite past performance is priced into his draft cost, but the risk of regression looms large. Drafting him too high might mean overpaying for diminishing returns.
While all five of these running backs possess undeniable talent and could produce fantasy points, their current ADP rankings inflate their true value based on various concerns like workload sharing, injury history, age decline, and unproven potential. Being aware of these overvaluations allows fantasy managers to adjust draft strategies and find better bargains at the position. Optimal drafting demands looking beyond name recognition and hype to the underlying situation that will determine a player's actual week-to-week fantasy production in 2025.
Avoid these five running backs as high picks, and pursue undervalued options with more stable roles and upside, helping to build a well-rounded and competitive fantasy football roster this season.
