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With fantasy football drafts ongoing and the NFL season just around the corner, one of the biggest conversations this time of the year centers around breakout players. Figuring out who will improve off their previous season and end up being a steal in the draft is often the key to winning a fantasy football league.
It is also crucial to determine which players to avoid. Some players face obstacles in terms of playing time and touches, while others simply play in ineffective offenses. Here are four offenses that you should avoid drafting from in fantasy football this year.
Arizona Cardinals
This Arizona Cardinals team is a mess. The opening-day quarterback will be Joshua Dobbs — who has just 85 regular-season pass attempts across his six-year career. Dobbs would be making his third career start and has spent time with six different franchises. Even with the loss of DeAndre Hopkins, the wide receiver group of Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, and Greg Dortch is still decent — and maybe they will be once Kyler Murray returns. But until then, stay away from this Arizona passing attack.
The only worthwhile fantasy option is James Conner, but he barely makes the cut among the top 20 running backs in PPR leagues. Conner is a viable play only because of the volume of touches he receives (17.6 touches per game from scrimmage in 2022). He eclipsed double-digit points in 10 of his 13 starts last season in PPR leagues and will not receive much competition out of the backfield this year from Keontay Ingram (27 carries in 2022) or Emari Demercado (an undrafted rookie out of TCU who was the team's number two back). With Joshua Dobbs under center, avoid this Arizona Cardinals offense at all costs.
Indianapolis Colts
Even after a sluggish preseason, Mercurial rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson is worth a look later in the season (and is worthy of a roster spot in deeper leagues). Still, it will likely end up being a fantasy situation similar to what Justin Fields caused in Chicago last year. Fields earned QB1 status thanks to his 1,143 yards on the ground but was unproductive in the air — thus removing all Bears pass-catchers from fantasy relevance. Michael Pittman is worthy of flex consideration given his 187 catches over the last two years, but questions about Richardson's arm make him a less attractive option.
The Indy backfield is an even bigger mess. Jonathan Taylor will be on the Physically Unable to Perform list for at least the first four games of the season with a supposed ankle injury, while backup Zack Moss is a question mark to begin the year thanks to a broken arm. Moss has never been a lead back in an NFL offense, and if he is unable to play, the rushing duties will be handed to Deon Jackson — a productive receiver who averaged just 2.8 yards/carry in a pair of starts last year. With so many question marks, stay away from this Colts offense until it proves it can consistently put up points.
Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young gives Carolina an exciting young quarterback and a possible franchise player moving forward, but what does the team offer offensively outside of him? The Panthers traded away D.J. Moore, leaving Adam Thielen, a 33-year-old who has seen his production drop each of the last two years, as the WR1. Behind him is D.J. Chark — who has been unable to replicate his 1,000-yard year with Jacksonville in 2019 — and rookie second-round pick Jonathan Mingo.
The running back position offers some notable names but it is still unclear whether they can be efficient behind the Panther offensive line. Miles Sanders benefited from a group of elite blockers in Philadelphia while Chubba Hubbard was often inconsistent in the many starts he made while replacing the oft-injured Christian McCaffrey. Sanders is probably the only fantasy football starter on this roster, but even so, he is still not a guy fantasy owners should be excited about drafting.
New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson was a breakout star in fantasy football last year, finishing seventh in points among running backs in PPR leagues. He was a valuable rusher, totaling 1,040 yards on the ground while averaging 5.0 yards per carry, but it was his pass-catching ability out of the backfield that propelled him to fantasy prominence. His 69 catches were fourth among running backs — a surprise considering he only hauled in 14 receptions in 2021. Coach Bill Belichick has also shown a reluctance to rely on a lead running back. Stevenson was the first Pats RB to exceed 1,000 yards on the ground since LeGarrette Blount in 2016, and it was his efficiency rather than the number of carries that made him so productive. With Ezekiel Elliott in the fold, Rhamondre Stevenson will need to maintain his elite efficiency levels to repeat his standout performance from 2022.
One of the main reasons for New England's struggles in 2022 was Mac Jones' regression. A Pro Bowler in 2021, Jones threw for 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in his sophomore campaign and there were even talks that Bailey Zappe could win the starting job over the former Alabama signal-caller. Jones will likely bounce back in 2023, but that still does not mean he or his receivers will be relevant fantasy options. Jakobi Meyers — who led the team with 804 receiving yards — is now on the Las Vegas Raiders. JuJu Smith-Schuster is arguably an upgrade at WR1 for the Pats, and he will line up alongside the inconsistent duo of DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne. In a run-heavy team (and one that splits carries), it is difficult to justify relying on any players in this New England offense for fantasy football purposes.
