Subscribe
Follow Us
One of the most unexpected moves in recent NFL history came in March 2022, when the Miami Dolphins traded for Kansas City Chiefs star wide receiver Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins acquired Hill in exchange for five draft picks: first, second, and fourth-round picks in 2022, plus fourth and sixth-round picks in the 2023 draft.
The Miami offense jumped from 22nd in points and 25th in yards in 2021 to 11th and sixth, respectively, in those categories in 2022. Tyreek Hill also posted career-bests in catches and receiving yards, restoring his status as an elite fantasy football receiver. Now in his second season in Miami, here is what fantasy football owners can expect from Tyreek in 2023.
Tyreek Hill 2023 fantasy football outlook
Re-establishing as a downfield threat in South Beach
In his sixth and final season with the Chiefs, Tyreek Hill's role in the Kansas City offense made him more of an underneath receiver. In 2021, his 11.1 scrimmage yards per touch were the lowest of his NFL career and down from 14 yards/touch in 2020. His 7.8 yards/target were also the lowest of his pro tenure.
After arriving in Miami, Hill immediately re-established himself as a downfield threat. Hill finished with 1,710 receiving yards on 119 catches, both career highs while averaging three more yards per catch and 2.3 more yards per target than in 2021.
The former fifth-round pick was the second-highest scorer in fantasy football among wide receivers and fourth among FLEX players in 2022. The only thing fantasy owners could ask Hill for more of is touchdowns. Cheetah found the end zone nine times in 2022, though one was a long return of a fumble and another rushing.
Hill averaged a touchdown around once every five-and-a-half quarters during his five seasons as a starter in Kansas City. In Miami, that number dipped to once every eight-and-a-half quarters (excluding the lucky fumble). If Hill can reach paydirt more often, he has a good chance to match his output from last year.
Tua Dependency?
Hill's fantasy success last year correlated heavily with the health of starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. In the four games that Tagovailoa sat out in 2022, Hill averaged 6.3 catches and 76 receiving yards. In the 13 contests that the left QB started, Hill posted 7.2 catches and 108.3 yards per game. All of Tyreek Hill's seven receiving touchdowns also came when Tagovailoa was under center.
In fantasy terms, Cheetah scored 13.9 points per game (in PPR leagues) with Teddy Bridgewater or Skylar Thompson under center and 20.9 points with a healthy Tua. Tagovailoa also missed four games in 2021. These were serious injuries too — first fractured ribs and then a recent string of concussions.
Tyreek Hill is an effective receiver regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Dolphins, but his big-play ability is significantly hindered by the oft-injured Tua Tagovailoa misses time.
Overall Outlook
Hill enters the 2023 season as ESPN's fourth-ranked wideout in PPR formats, clocking in at 12th overall in the website's latest rankings. Above Hill in the rankings is Cooper Kupp, coming off an injury-plagued season with a rebuilding Los Angeles Rams franchise, and rookie running back Bijan Robinson — who is joining an Atlanta Falcons offense that already has a 1,000-yard rusher in Tyler Allgeier.
Even with concerns around Tua Tagovailoa's ability to stay on the field, Hill has a lower floor and arguably better upside than both players if he can find the end zone more often. Tyreek Hill is a top-10 fantasy player who should be a first-round pick in all fantasy football drafts.
