After a slow start, the Houston Astros have slowly clawed away at the Texas Rangers' lead at the top of the AL West. Houston is currently at a season-best 19 games over .500 and the Astros are tied for the lead at the top of the division for the first time since the season commenced.

Injuries have proven costly to the pitching staff, and though the return of Jose Urquidy plus the reacquisition of superstar Justin Verlander have steadied this staff, a once insurmountable group of pitchers has suddenly looked fallible this season. Why this pitching staff could be the weakness holding Houston back come October.

Lack of consistent starting pitching

In the past, the strength of this Houston Astros team has often been the starting rotation. Last year, three starting pitchers had a sub-3.00 ERA, with AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander leading the way with a 1.75 earned run average. This year, through injuries and inconsistency, the Astros' rotation has not been as dominant. The team lost Luis Garcia early in the year to Tommy John surgery, while dependable back-end starter Jose Urquidy missed three months and currently has an ERA north of 5.00.

Rookies Hunter Brown and J.P. France have filled in admirably (combined 4.01 ERA), though neither has been as sharp since the All-Star break. The Houston coaching staff will also wonder whether it can trust this young duo come playoff time.

The biggest concern though for the Astros has to be the front of this talented pitching staff. Cristian Javier has been unable to repeat his showing from a year ago when he had a 2.54 ERA and 194 strikeouts in 148.2 innings pitches. In an equal number of starts from 2022, Javier has a 4.66 ERA and his strikeout rate is down from 11.7 per nine innings to just 8.2. Cristian Javier's expected ERA of 4.82 plus a groundball rate that ranks in the lowest 1% among MLB pitchers suggest that this regression is no fluke either.

Javier has been especially mediocre over the last two months or so, posting a 7.46 ERA with 12 home runs given up in 11 starts. Only fantastic run support (7.04 runs per start) has helped the right-hander maintain a strong 9-2 record on the season. The other member of the Astros rotation experiencing a puzzling season is Framber Valdez. Valdez led Major League Baseball with 201.1 innings pitched and 827 batters faced last year, and while his 2023 stats are solid (3.38 ERA and 164 strikeouts in 167.2 innings), a closer look shows just how erratic the left has been

Here are Framber Valdez's stat lines from his six starts in the month of August:

  • Aug 1: 9 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K (no-hitter)
  • Aug 8: 7 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 2 BB,  3 K
  • Aug 14: 7.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
  • Aug 19: 5 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
  • Aug 25: 7 IP, 0 H,  0 ER, 5 BB, 6 K
  • Aug 30: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K

His ERA was a respectable 3.67, but in reality, he has been a different pitcher every time he takes the mound. Again, another pitching that the Astros might not have full faith in come playoff time.

The one bright spot here is Justin Verlander. Since coming over from the New York Mets at the trade deadline, the 40-year-old has a 2.79 ERA in five starts and has not allowed a run in each of his last two appearances. He will be Houston's go-to guy down the stretch, but the team will need a lot more from the rest of its starting rotation to propel the club to a second consecutive World Series title.