The 2023 NCAA tournament has been a magical time for the Florida Atlantic men's basketball team. The Owls entered the tournament with just one previous appearance and zero wins, and most didn't expect them to do much in the dance. Now, they've miraculously made it to the Final Four and have a shot to be the most unlikely national champion ever.
To get there, though, they'll have to get through the San Diego State Aztecs in the Final Four. These two teams are very similar in the sense that they're both mid-major teams looking to make history. In terms of how they play, though, they're very different. Only one can prevail, though, and only time will tell which team that will be.
While we eagerly await this contest, let's pass the time by making some bold predictions for the Owls in the Final Four.
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3. The Owls hold the Aztecs under 40% from the field
Even with this great run, Florida Atlantic basketball's defense has still flown under the radar. Quietly, the Owls boast one of the best defenses in terms of shooting percentage, ranking 18th nationally in field goal percentage allowed at 40.2%.
In the tournament, their defense has seen its ups and downs. On one hand, that defense excelled against Tennessee, only allowing 33.3% of shots from the field. In the next game against Kansas State, though, the defense wasn't as strong, allowing 46.6% of field goals.
Meanwhile, San Diego State isn't a particularly great shooting team. The Aztecs have made 44.1% of their field goals this season, placing them at 205th in the country. They haven't shot too well recently, making under 40% of their shots in the last two games.
It goes without saying, but the Owls have to keep up their strong defense to win this game. If they can hold the Aztecs under 40% from the field, then they should be in good shape.
2. The Owls break through the Aztecs' sturdy defense
What the Aztecs really excel at is defense, and they've shown that to a national audience in this tournament. They've held opponents to just 40.8% from the field, ranking 35th nationally, and just 27.9% from three-point range, ranking third nationally. Their scoring defense is also superb, ranking 24th nationally at just 62.9 points per game.
As the tournament goes on, the Aztecs' defense seems to play better and better. In the Sweet 16, they held Alabama, one of the best offensive teams in the country, to 64 points, 32.4% shooting and 11.1% on threes.
Then in the Elite Eight, they held Creighton to 56 points, tied for its second-lowest total of the season, 40% shooting and 11.8% on threes.
Breaking through San Diego State's defense will be a tough task, but an essential one. Fortunately for Florida Atlantic basketball, they have been a good offensive team all season, ranking in the top 60 in scoring, field goal percentage and three-point percentage.
They also managed to beat Tennessee, which ranks in the top three in the three major defensive stats. They've proven that they can beat strong defensive teams, and they'll need to do it again against the Aztecs.
1. Florida Atlantic basketball advances to the title game
To this point, FAU's Cinderella run is one of the most impressive in tournament history. Florida Atlantic basketball has had almost no basketball success before this year, and yet here they are in the Final Four. Seeing as they're still alive, this run could become THE greatest ever if they keep winning.
Of course, they are still the underdogs, as they have been all year. According to FanDuel, they are 2.5-point underdogs against the Aztecs. They also have the longest odds to win the national championship of the remaining teams at +550.
That's OK, though, because they've excelled in this role all season. It almost seems like the more people count them out, the better they play. If they can channel that energy again, they will play for a championship on Monday.
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