The Cleveland Guardians (26-32) are looking to split a four a game series with a win Sunday afternoon as they take on the Minnesota Twins (31-28). This game will continue our MLB odds series as we give out a Guardians-Twins prediction and pick while letting you know how to watch, as well.
Will Brennan leads the Guardians with five hits in the series. Cleveland has four other players with four hits in the three games played this weekend. Brennan and Steven Kwan have gone yard for the Guardians while Brennan also leads the team with four RBI. Cleveland will need more production from their star player, Jose Ramirez, if they want a win Sunday afternoon. Ramirez is 1-13 in the series with no walks. On the mound, the Guardians have given up 10 earned runs in the three games. After giving up seven in game one, Cleveland allowed just one and two runs in the last two games.
Donovan Solano has been awesome for the Twins in this series. He has five hits in three games with two doubles, and two RBI. Royce Lewis and Jorge Polanco have homered in the series. However, Polanco and Lewis are a combined 5-25 at the plate, so they have not been helping the team besides the home runs. On the mound, the Twins have given up 10 earned runs. They have been throwing the ball pretty well, including a shutout in game two of this series. The Twins bullpen has given up only one of those 10 runs in the series.
Triston McKenzie will be making his first start of the season in this game for Cleveland while Joe Ryan takes the mound for Minnesota.
Here are the Guardians-Twins MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Twins Odds
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-146)
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+122)
Over: 7.5 (-105)
Under: 7.5 (-115)
How To Watch Guardians vs. Twins
TV: Bally Sports Great Lakes, Bally Sports North
Stream: MLB TV Subscription
Time: 2:10 PM ET/11:10 AM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
Triston McKenzie is getting his first start of the year in this game after leaving a spring training game with an injury. It will be interesting to see how long he is allowed to go, or if he will be on a pitch count Sunday afternoon. No matter what, there is no denying the season he had in 2022. McKenzie finished with an ERA below 3.00, the fifth best WHIP in the MLB, and 190 strikeouts. In his career, Opponents hit just .196 off McKenzie. This season, the Twins are struggling at the plate and they lead the league in whiff rate. Minnesota is in the bottom-10 of the MLB in batting average and they have struck out the most by a large margin. If McKenzie can return to his 2022 form, the Guardians will cover this spread.
Why The Twins Could Cover The Spread
Joe Ryan gives the Twins a chance to win anytime he takes the mound. He has allowed opponents to hit just .212 on the season. Ryan is in the 83rd percentile in xBA, 87th percentile in xSLG, 92nd percentile in barrel percentage, and 98th percentile in chase rate. Ryan does not allow a lot of hits to begin with, but when he does, those hits are rarely for extra bases.
As mentioned, Ryan ranks extremely well in chase rate. He throws a lot of pitches that start on the plate and finish off the plate. Many hitters struggle to lay off his pitches out of the zone or in the dirt. The Guardians are one of those teams. They have the second highest chase percentage in the league. Ryan should have a lot of success in getting the Guardians to chase pitches out of the zone. If he does, the Twins will cover the spread.
Final Guardians-Twins Prediction & Pick
It is Mckenzie's first outing back. Although exciting, it is hard to say how long he will be allowed to go. Expect Joe Ryan and the Twins to win this game and cover the spread.
Final Guardians-Twins Prediction & Pick: Twins -1.5 (+122) , Under 7.5 (-115)
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