Some teams simply perform better while playing with house money, and the Atlanta Hawks seem to be the epitome of that kind of team. Not many fans and pundits expected the Hawks to beat the playoff-tested Miami Heat in the 7/8 play-in tournament game, but they did so in convincing fashion, proving the naysayers wrong in the process. (Not a single member of ESPN's panel of experts chose the Hawks to beat the Heat, so Dejounte Murray naturally had his fun after their victory.)
Of course, who expected anything else from a Hawks team that seems to be mired in unprecedented levels of mediocrity. They entered their contest against the Heat with a 41-41 overall record, and they were coming off a loss, so it only made sense for them to right the ship.
Still, despite the considerable talent level on the Hawks roster, the Boston Celtics may be too steep of an uphill climb for them to overcome. The Celtics may have suffered a few uncharacteristic losses here and there to end the season, but they still ended the 2022-23 season with both the second-best offensive and defensive ratings in the NBA, which is comparable to marks only the 2014-15 and 2016-17 Golden State Warriors posted.
The Celtics have all sorts of tools to shapeshift depending on their opponent; they can go small (Grant Williams or even Al Horford at the five with Derrick White and Marcus Smart as a stifling defensive backcourt) which should make life extremely difficult for Trae Young and Dejounte Murray on the perimeter, or they can go big (Robert Williams III) and neuter Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu's work on the glass.
Thus, for the Hawks to stand a chance, they will need this wing player to step up in the 2023 NBA playoffs and make life difficult for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
Hawks' biggest X-factor vs. Celtics: De'Andre Hunter
Stopping either Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown is an impossible task. Those two averaged almost 57 points between them, and they even tied the record for most 30-point games as a duo in a single season (12). But the Hawks simply cannot roll over just because the Celtics boast two of the best wings in the NBA. And for them to make it a series, they will need De'Andre Hunter to be at his best, on both ends of the floor, similar to how he played in the playoffs last season as the 8-seed against the Heat.
Hunter, in particular, looked like a burgeoning star during their five-game series loss to the Heat last season. The 25-year old forward got better and better as the series progressed, culminating in a 35-point, 11-rebound, three-steal effort on 11-21 shooting in the Hawks' heartbreaking Game 5 defeat on the road.
What was most impressive about Hunter's workload during that series was that he acted as the primary defender on Jimmy Butler. While Butler will get his, especially in the postseason, Hunter had stretches where he was able to slow down the Heat's best player.
In the play-in game, however, Hunter did not see much action against Butler, as it was John Collins who took on the responsibility of defending the Heat's star man. But Collins may not have too much success against Tatum or Brown, given how much more dangerous those two are from scoring on all three levels than Butler. This could stretch Collins' defense beyond its breaking point. Thus, Hunter remains the most qualified defender to take on either Tatum or Brown, with Dejounte Murray taking on the other matchup.
Where De'Andre Hunter will need to show up, however, is on the offensive end of the floor. He disappeared against the Heat in the play-in game, as Saddiq Bey took over his minutes late in the contest. Hunter can only contribute defensively if he manages to stay on the court by virtue of his offensive production, as head coach Quin Snyder hasn't shown any hesitation in pulling him if he runs cold from the perimeter.
Bey, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Jalen Johnson will definitely be counted upon to deliver quality minutes, but they don't quite have the two-way upside Hunter possesses, especially when he is most physically capable Hawks player of slowing down the Celtics' deadly wing duo.
The fourth overall pick in 2019, Hunter hasn't quite broken out yet the way the Hawks hoped he would when they signed him to a four-year, $90 million extension. But given the matchup in front of him, he will have plenty of opportunities to prove himself on the biggest stage, and he needs to take it by the scruff of its neck.
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