At long last, the Kawhi Leonard – San Antonio Spurs horror show is all but over. In a surprise landscape changing trade that has undoubtedly sent shockwaves across the NBA landscape, the Toronto Raptors have sent franchise cornerstone Demar Derozan, 2016 first round pick Jakob Poetl and a 2019 protected first round pick in exchange for disgruntled San Antonio star Kawhi Leonard and long time starting wing Danny Green.
Superstar trades this monumental do not happen all that often in the NBA and as such, it is worth dissecting how this trade impacts the two teams from both a short term view and a long term view.
In the short term for the Raptors (and under the assumption that Kawhi is healthy and is going to play): Kawhi Leonard raises their ceiling. It is unclear how much that ceiling will be raised, but it seems certain that they’re better with a healthy and engaged Kawhi Leonard than when they were with Demar Derozan last year.
Getting Danny Green isn’t bad, either. At 31, he brings his mental toughness and experience to a team that badly needs it in the playoffs.
With Lebron James gone, the East has never been more wide open in this era. The Raptors made the right move in wanting to take one last bite at the Eastern Conference apple. Demar DeRozan’s well documented and repeated collapses in the playoffs likely made GM Masai Ujiri realize they can’t win with him at the helm. They had to take a swing, changes had to be made.
As for the Spurs, they’re also going to be better than they were last year. Demar DeRozan is a stud. He is a multiple time All-Star. He has shown he is one of the top scorers in the league in the past few years, always adding weapons to his already loaded offensive arsenal.
At least on the offensive end, he can fill in nicely to what Kawhi was for the Spurs two years ago. Say what you want about Demar and Aldridge, but the Spurs have a 1-2 punch that they sorely lacked last year. Given the Spurs’ history of success, and also the chip on DeRozan’s shoulder, the Spurs will bring out even more from him.
Reminder that he is still only going to be 29 this season – still in his prime. Looking at the most optimistic Spurs point of view for the upcoming season, if Murray and the rest of the young roster can take a big leap this year, coupled with the arrival of Derozan and Poetl, maybe they can actually contend in the West again.
As for the long term for the Raptors, assuming Kawhi Leonard is just going to be a one year rental, giving up Demar who they could have locked up through the 2020-2021 is a huge risk. Derozan was undoubtedly their franchise cornerstone. He was Mr Raptor. He did not even take any other meeting from any team the last time he signed his contract. There’s no two ways about it.
However, not all is lost for the Raps in the long term. They only lost Jakob Poeltl and a 2019 protected first round pick. If we were going to rank the Raps young guys in terms of upside and importance to the team moving forward, that would be OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Fred Van Vleet, Delon Wright and then Poetl.
Looking at it from that perspective, giving up Poetl is an acceptable cost if it means getting Kawhi Leonard. As for the pick, the Raptors will probably be good enough that their pick will fall below 20 this year — meaning they’ll be giving up their 2019 first round pick (20+) to San Antonio. That’s fine. If their pick falls from 1 to 20 then they get to keep their 2019 pick and the pick conveyed to the Spurs will just turns into 2 second round picks in 2020. That's fine too.
I think the Raptors getting to keep OG is the best thing they could’ve done to protect their long term. I am super high on OG, I think he can be way more than just 3-and-D player. We already saw glimpses of that in the playoffs when he scored 18 points, drained 4 threes and guarded Lebron for stretches in game 3 against the Cavs albeit in a loss. He also just turned 21 and with his combination of size, strength and agility, he has all the tools to be a future star in this league.
Moreover, Lowry’s $33 million and Ibaka’s $23 million are up in 2020 as the last year of the hefty contracts they signed in 2017. Knowing this, if Kawhi Leonard decides to bolt after a year, the Raptors can try to move Lowry and Ibaka in the 2019-2020 season to still salvage something. If they cannot, then they’ll both be off the books in 2020 and by then the Raptors can move forward. Assuming the young core of FVV, Delon and Siakam continue to develop, and if OG does blossom into that star the Raptors hope he will become, they won’t be starting from nothing in 2020.
Maybe the Raptors also thought that there was no point in keeping Derozan after Lowry and Ibaka’s contracts are up. For one, Demar would be 31 by then so his decline would start soon. Also, the Sixers, the Celtics and maybe even the Bucks are going to keep better and if this current iteration of the Raptors can’t beat them now, then maybe it’s time to look at the younger pieces and reshuffle the puzzle.
Moreover, Masai Ujiri is a very smart and calculating GM so it is not out of the realm of possibility that he had the foresight to cut bait from DeRozan while he still had value and still be able to get something substantial for him. Masai probably knew that he’s going to be much harder to trade down the line and they’ll probably not get another superstar for him in the future. If they wanted to get something in return for him, the perfect time was now.
In terms of San Antonio's long term, Pop and RC certainly knew there was no chance they were going to be able to keep Kawhi so they just got the best package available. DeRozan is probably not the long term championship answer the Spurs are looking for (which is why the Raptors were willing to give him up in the first place), but at least now the Spurs’ll have a few years to think of a long term plan while also reassuring they will be fine in the next three seasons since Demar is signed through the 2020-2021 season.
They also got Jakob Poetl in the deal. Poetl may never become a true star but the Spurs will find a way to make him better than he really is some way. That’s what the Spurs do. At least if this goes sour on the Spurs, they might still be able to trade Derozan for more young pieces before he becomes a free agent.
This move also feels like a last hurrah for Pop to contend with Tim, Parker and Manu now all gone. They’ll probably go on a full restart with the young core of Murray, Walker and whoever is left after Pop is gone.
Overall, right now is too early to really say for sure who won the trade. The trade helps both teams in the short term, allowing San Antonio to be good again, and if all goes well, raises Toronto’s ceiling given the one year tight window they have.
This trade will ultimately be judged in the long term. If for some miracle Kawhi Leonard signs long term in Toronto, is healthy, and returns to the dominating two-way force of nature that he once was when he was in the MVP race in the 2016-2017 season, then this is a win for Toronto. But given everything we know about Kawhi Leonard and Uncle Dennis, and with his focus laser set on LA before he got traded, there really is no guarantee that he’s re-signing with the Raptors in a year’s time.
Maybe the Spurs know something about him that the Raptors don’t; maybe it’s all in plain sight that he will be hell bent on going to LA, but this is a risk the Raptors had to take. As for San Antonio, they finally got rid of Kawhi and attempt to restore that winning culture that they have so well cultivated over the past 20 or so years and give Pop that final run that he and the fans so truly deserve.
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