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The strongest likelihood this offseason for the Milwaukee Bucks is that Giannis Antetokounmpo pledges his loyalty to the team amid rumors that he could request a trade in the aftermath of Damian Lillard's long-term injury that puts such a huge damper on their contending chances over the next few years. Nonetheless, crazier things have happened in the past, and there are scarcely any crazier outcomes for Antetokounmpo than to land with the Toronto Raptors, where he's long been coveted by team president Masai Ujiri.
If anything, one would think that Antetokounmpo will be landing with an established contender, or somewhere guaranteed to become a title-contending team upon his arrival, which makes the Raptors quite an unlikely destination. The Raptors have not been good over the past few years, winning just 55 games, with the Scottie Barnes era not exactly off to a flying start.
Antetokounmpo's arrival, however, could be the first move the Raptors make to return to the consistent playoff-contending ways they were in during the 2010s. But do the Raptors have enough to entice the Bucks in a potential trade, especially when the Desmond Bane trade reminded the league just how expensive it is to acquire the best players in the association?
ESPN put together a hypothetical trade package for Antetokounmpo from the Raptors, and in this exercise, we will be making a cursory analysis of how well the trade works for both sides.
ESPN's hypothetical Giannis Antetokounmpo Raptors-Bucks trade
Raptors trade: Scottie Barnes, Gradey Dick, Ochai Agbaji, 2025 first-round pick (No. 9), 2029 first-round pick, and 2031 first-round pick
Bucks trade: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Raptors risk it all on Giannis' shoulders
When the Raptors decided to start from scratch during the 2023-24 season, they did so with the intention of having Scottie Barnes as their franchise cornerstone in mind. Barnes, the 23-year-old combo forward, took a major step during that aforementioned season, even making an All-Star team, before an injury unfortunately cut his season short.
And then last season, Barnes was unable to get into much of a rhythm after suffering an early-season injury, and his scoring efficiency dipped as a result. His true shooting percentage declined all the way to 52.3 — a career-worst. This is not a very promising trajectory for someone who was deemed to be the star that will take the team back to their typical contending ways.
Nonetheless, the utility that Barnes provides is clear. In a league prioritizing defensive versatility, Barnes is a great piece to have for any team looking to compete. His ballhandling and ability to work well with his back to the basket makes him quite the all-around offensive weapon as well. But he's miscast as a number-one scoring option, as he does his best damage when he's playing alongside a floor general who can set him up or when he's playing with the best possible talent.
He's only 23 years of age, so he has time on his side when it comes to improving as a franchise cornerstone for the Raptors. But at 23 years of age, Giannis Antetokounmpo was already a 27-point, double-double machine who finished sixth in MVP voting. There is a good chance that Barnes never develops into anything close to the player Antetokounmpo has been over the past decade or so, and if the Raptors want to expedite their return to contention, trading Barnes as the centerpiece in a Giannis trade is not the worst idea in the world.
Barnes alone won't get it done, however. Gradey Dick is someone the Raptors will be pained to give up, especially when he was productive in his sophomore campaign and projects to be a quality rotation piece for years to come, thanks to his floor-spacing ability and improving game off the bounce. Dick is the kind of player that any contending team would love to have, as he has the size as well to not be a total negative on the defensive end.
Ochai Agbaji even took a leap last season, nearly shooting 40 percent from beyond the arc on four attempts per game, and as a 6'5″ wing, he is yet another 3-and-D piece that the Raptors may want to keep in a scenario where they land Antetokounmpo. Antetokounmpo is at his best when he has shooters who can defend alongside him, and Agbaji fits the bill. Maybe the Raptors could instead trade away Ja'Kobe Walter, another first-round pick last year, instead of one of Dick or Agbaji.
Nonetheless, this is Antetokounmpo we're talking about, and the player package is just about right. The Bucks will be asking for one of Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett, but the Raptors may have to draw the line at that so they can field a competitive squad around Antetokounmpo even after trading for him.
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It's the draft picks that will make this decision difficult for the Raptors. They saw what happened to the Phoenix Suns not long after they mortgaged their future for a 34-year-old Kevin Durant. The Suns fell off, and now they couldn't even rebuild properly since they don't have control over their first-rounders. They even compounded matters by trading pick swaps for Bradley Beal.
Those picks could end up being really valuable if the Raptors end up not being able to compete with Antetokounmpo, which could then lead to scenario where the star forward decides to walk in free agency. But these are the risks every team has to take when they trade for a top-five player who's under contract for multiple more years.
Grade: A
Bucks will ask for more… but Toronto's nearly there
The Bucks will be asking for all the draft picks in the world in the event that they trade Antetokounmpo. They will also be asking for pieces that can help them remain afloat, as they do not have control over their first-round picks until 2031. But this trade package from the Raptors is close to what Milwaukee should demand if Antetokounmpo asks out.
They are acquiring a young All-Star-caliber player in Barnes, two solid prospects in Dick and Agbaji, as well as future first-round picks that could amount to something considering the uncertainty in the Raptors' future. But again, this is Antetokounmpo we're talking about. He averaged 30-12-7 last season on over 60 percent shooting from the field, and at just 30 years old (he'll be turning 31 in December), he has plenty of productive years left in the tank.
Antetokounmpo is a legitimate MVP candidate and is one of the five-best players in the league right now who recently finished third in MVP voting (behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic). Some would point to the Suns-Brooklyn Nets' trade involving Durant in 2023 as a blueprint for the Bucks to follow, but at that time, Durant was older and not as impactful of an individual as Antetokounmpo is.
This is why the Bucks must ask for one of RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley (with Kyle Kuzma going to the Raptors in such a scenario), as well as another future first-round pick. If the Raptors ever put those on the table along with the players they have going the Bucks' way in the ESPN hypothetical, then it will be difficult for Milwaukee to turn that offer down.
But again, it is worth mentioning that the Bucks don't have to trade Antetokounmpo, unless he demands one. If he does, Milwaukee would want to do right by the greatest player in franchise history. But since he has multiple years left on his contract, the Bucks should not let go of him without getting the best possible return, unlike the Dallas Mavericks, a team that decided to let go of Luka Doncic without drumming up a bidding war.
Grade: C+
