Ranked 11th overall in the nation, Porter Moser’s Oklahoma Sooners will take on T.J. Otzelberger’s Iowa State Cyclones. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with an Iowa State-Oklahoma prediction and pick.

Undefeated at home this year, Porter Moser has his best Oklahoma squad yet. Siana transfer Javian McCollum has quickly become one of the better point guards in the Big 12. McCollum was the biggest piece in a transfer class that included Georgia Tech’s Jalon Moore and Pittsburgh’s John Hugley. The bigger story with this team is the breakout of 6-5 sophomore Otega Oweh. Oweh has been nothing short of phenomenal. 

Another team with some fresh faces is Iowa State. A transfer class including UNLV’s Keshon Gilbert and Wofford’s Jackson Paveletzke has translated well so far. Oztelberger brought in a pair of freshmen as well, with 6-8 Milan Momcilovic proving to be a crucial piece of the Cyclones' offensive success. 

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Iowa State-Oklahoma Odds

Iowa State: +3.5 (-115)

Moneyline: (+134)

Oklahoma: -3.5 (-105)

Moneyline: (-162)

Over: 142.5 (-110)

Under: 142.5 (-110)

How to Watch Iowa State vs. Oklahoma 

Time: 6:oo pm ET/ 3:oo pm PT

TV: ESP+

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Iowa State Will Cover The Spread

The matchup between 6-1 sophomore Tamin Lipsey and Oklahoma’s 6-2 junior Javian McCollum is going to be special. Lipsey is one of the best perimeter defenders in the country. The sophomore ranks 3rd nationally with a steal rate of 6.6%. Lipsey has had at least two steals in every single game, just wild. Javian McCollum has the highest usage rate for Oklahoma at 23.0%, if Lipsey can lock him up Oklahoma could be in for a long day.

If there is one thing Iowa State collectively buys into as a defense it is not allowing anything easy in the paint. In terms of point distribution, only 5 teams in the nation allow fewer points from inside the arc. Contrarily, Oklahoma’s best analytical category both offensively and defensively is their offensive two-point percentage of 59.0% which ranks 9th nationally. If Oklahoma is having an off night from long-range, the Iowa State defense will be brutal to score on. 

Lastly, this offense has been one of the more unselfish offenses in the country. Ranking 16th nationally in assist rate at 62.5% the Cyclones find the best shot possible. Tamin Lipsey has an assist rate of 33.7% and Keshon Gilbert’s is 27.3%. In Lipsey’s past three games, he has 18 assists to only 2 turnovers. When playing on the road, taking care of the basketball is that much more important. 

Why Oklahoma Will Cover The Spread

Initially, we have to point out that Iowa State’s only true road game was at DePaul. So basically this is their first true road game of the year. In four games away from home, Iowa State is 2-2. Besides DePaul, they had to come back from 15 down against VCU, lost to a bad Virginia Tech team, and lost to Texas A&M without both Wade Taylor and Henry Coleman. The Cyclones only have two top 200 wins, VCU and Iowa. 

While Iowa State is a good rebounding team, they do it as a collective. The Cyclones do not have a single player with a defensive rebounding rate above 18.3% but no one below 11.2%. Oklahoma’s Sam Godwin is currently the nation's best offensive rebounder with a rate of 25.9%. In 12 games played, Godwin has 4 or more offensive rebounds in 7 of them. 

For the most part, Godwin will be matched up at the center position against Robert Jones. Over the past five games, Jones has played 63% of the minutes at center. Jones’ defensive rebound rate is only 12.7%. Godwin could be in for a huge day. 

Lastly, while Iowa State plugs up the interior they let teams shoot threes at an insane rate. In terms of point distribution, Iowa State allows the 5th highest percentage of opponent points from three (39.8%). Oklahoma’s offensive distribution is balanced, but they can shoot. They rank 89th nationally in three-point percentage and 9th in two-point percentage. Those numbers would be even better if Milos Uzan did not start the season in a slump – 40.8% last year to 26.1% this. 

Final Iowa State-Oklahoma Prediction & Pick

I think the computers are off on this Iowa State team. Against the three best defenses they have faced Iowa State scored under 70 each time. Wins like 102-47 over Lindenwood (346th) and 96-58 over Florida A&M (330th) have blown up this team's analytics. 

This is an Oklahoma team that got caught sleepwalking against North Carolina similar to how Tennessee did. A bit of a wake-up call if you ask me. Contrarily, Iowa State has not been in a competitive game in almost six weeks. The Cyclones have yet to play in a hostile environment, give me the home team to cover.

Final Iowa State-Oklahoma Prediction & Pick: Oklahoma -3.5 (-105)