On Feb. 11, in a victory over the Dallas Mavericks, reigning MVP James Harden extended his streak of games with 30 or more points to a staggering 30 games, the second longest streak in NBA history. During that streak, he has averaged over 40 points per game to put his season average at 36.5 points per. While there may be no player in the league that can fully stop Harden, Jrue Holiday has forced Harden into tough shots and turnovers in all three games he has played this season against the reigning MVP. But is he the ultimate James Harden stopper? If not, who is?
Besides Holiday, some of the greatest defenders in basketball come to mind as likely candidates, like Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jimmy Butler, Paul George and Marcus Smart, all wings or guards with the reputation of being great perimeter defenders. Leonard and Green have each won Defensive Player of the Year awards, and George and the Greek Freak are the likely frontrunners for the award this year. How effective are those players at guarding Harden?
Despite his defensive excellence being more low-profile than some of the other candidates listed, the numbers back up the eye test for the Pelicans guard. Holiday has guarded Harden this year on 134 possessions in three games, more than any other player in the league, and has absolutely shut the reigning MVP down. Harden is also the player that Holiday has guarded the most.
Harden has shot just 30.8% (12/39) from the floor against Holiday while only being fouled twice. It is not just that Harden is missing shots either. Holiday has blocked him six times while forcing him to turn the ball over nine times. While defensive statistics are often tough to interpret, these numbers send a pretty clear message. Holiday is truly elite when it comes to guarding Harden.
While Draymond Green certainly has the reputation of being one of the best defensive players in the league and a critical part of the Warriors switch-heavy offense, he has not actually guarded Harden very often over the last two seasons. In the four games he has played against Harden and the Rockets since the start of the 17-18 season, Green has only been the primary defender on Harden for thirty four possessions and thirteen shot attempts.
Harden did only shoot 30.7% on those attempts, but it is fair to eliminate Green from consideration simply due to a lack of possessions and attempts. Despite this, it is still noteworthy that Green dissuaded Harden from shooting more than thirteen times in those thirty four possessions.
Paul George, by virtue of typically matching up with the opponents best offensive wing player, has guarded Harden much more frequently than Green. In the 113 possessions this season where George has been the primary defender on Harden, Harden has had some shooting success, with a 48.3 shooting percentage on 29 shots. While that initial number is not very impressive, Harden has shot just 30.8% on his threes against George.
Where George really shines though, is in forcing Harden to cough up the ball. George has forced Harden into 12 turnovers this year, including two offensive fouls, while ‘the Beard' has only been able to dish out six assists. That's an awful A/TO ratio of 0.5, a number a stone-handed big man might have, not a ratio one of the league's premier distributors in Harden. While his FG% against George is much higher than against Holiday, Harden does struggle to keep control of the ball much more against PG-13.
Kawhi Leonard, like Green, just has not guarded Harden enough by virtue of missing almost all of last season and now playing for the Raptors. Leonard has only matched up with Harden on 10 possessions, and Harden took and missed only one shot. It is an impressive albeit minuscule sample, and just is not enough to consider him the best Harden stopper in the league. Giannis suffers from a similar issue. His sample size against Harden just is not large enough. Giannis has only guarded Harden on ten possessions over the last two years, with Harden shooting 2/4 against him without turning the ball over. Antetokounmpo's numbers against Harden are not even great in that span, but once again, the sample size is just too small.
Only Holiday and George can really be considered for the distinction of best Harden stopper, and of those two Holiday comes out just ahead of George. While George has forced Harden into way more turnovers and has shut down Harden's passing much more than Holiday has, Holiday's tight defense and excellent shot contests force Harden into uncomfortable shots that can be seen in his very low FG% against the 2018 first team All-Defense guard.
Of course, to be the best Harden stopper in the league, you have to be more than willing to guard the reigning MVP. Holiday's league leading 134 possessions guarding Harden shows that he is more than willing to take on that assignment without relinquishing responsibility. George has guarded Harden a lot as well, but can take possessions off while allowing Russell Westbrook or another wing to take a play guarding Harden to get a breather.
The numbers prove that Holiday truly is Harden's kryptonite.
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