After three injury-plagued seasons, Baltimore Ravens running back JK Dobbins — as well as fantasy football owners — will hope that 2023 is the year that the gifted running back breaks through as a true lead back in Baltimore for a full season. On limited carries in eight games last year, Dobbins averaged 65 rushing yards per contest on an efficient 5.7 yards per carry. This included a pair of 100-yard performances late in the season against divisional opponents.

Can Dobbins overcome his injury history and become a reliable rushing threat in Baltimore? Here is his 2023 fantasy football outlook:

JK Dobbins Fantasy Football Outlook for the 2023 Season

The key is in the knee

When he is on the field, JK Dobbins has been one of the most efficient rushers in the NFL. Across 226 pro carries, Dobbins is averaging 5.9 yards/rush — good for a total of 1,325 yards. Yet this production has come across three seasons because the second-round pick out of Ohio State has been unable to stay healthy. Dobbins missed all of the 2021 season due to a torn ACL suffered in Baltimore's final pre-season game. In 2022, the running back was out for the first two weeks, returned, then went on the injured reserve again for another six weeks for a cleanup procedure on the same knee, ending the year with eight games played.

Dobbins is now on the physically unable to perform list to begin training camp in 2023 due to an unspecified injury (rumor is it is related to his knee), leaving fantasy owners to wonder if the 24-year-old will ever play a full season or even be given a full workload.

Splitting The Bill

The Ravens' run-heavy offense is a double-edged sword for fantasy football owners. While there are plenty of carries to go around the backfield, rarely does one running back receive enough touches to be a reliable fantasy option. Baltimore's top three rushers in 2022 all average between 9.1 and 11.5 carries per game, and no Ravens running back has earned more than 42% of carries in a season since Lamar Jackson became a full-time starter in 2019.

Dobbins led the way with 11.5 carries/game in 2022, the ever-steady Gus Edwards finished second, and Lamar Jackson and Kenyan Drake rounded out the top five. Drake is out of the picture, but the new third-string running back on the Chesapeake Bay is Melvin Gordon, who averaged 3.5 yards/carry on 90 rushes with the Denver Broncos last year.

What kind of split can Dobbins expect in 2023? The 5-10 runner averaged 8.8 carries a game in his first four games as he returned from a full year off. In his second stint off the IR, that average jumped to 14.3 carries per contest. With Dobbins (hopefully) healthy entering the season and given Baltimore's reluctance to rely on one ball carrier, Dobbins should do a little better than his 14.3 carry/game peak in 2022 but is unlikely to eclipse the 20-carry barrier very often.

Catching Up

While Dobbins is a talented runner, he holds less value in PPR leagues due to his lack of production in the passing game. Last year, the Baltimore back had just seven catches in eight starts. This was a common theme in the Ravens' backfield, as no running back averaged multiple catches per contest. ESPN ranks Dobbins 25th amongst running backs in PPR leagues and 21st in non-PPR scenarios — a difference of about 12 spots in a mock draft setting. To make up for this shortcoming, Dobbins will need to return to his touchdown-scoring ways of 2020 (nine rushing TDs in 2020 versus just two in 2022).

Overall Outlook

Now entering the fourth year of his career, JK Dobbins has shown glimpses of the talent that helped him rush for 2,000 yards in his final year at Ohio State, but through injuries and lack of workload, Dobbins has yet to fully reach his potential in the NFL. The Baltimore back finished 35th among PPR running backs with an average of 10.2 points/game a year ago — hardly the numbers you would expect from the lead back in such a prolific offense.

Dobbins is the number one running back for the Ravens with a high floor but also a low ceiling. This makes him a borderline top-20 fantasy running back in 2023, which puts the fourth-year man in RB2/FLEX territory in most leagues and worthy of a pick in the sixth or seventh round.