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The Minnesota Vikings picked Jordan Addison out of USC in the first round of the NFL Draft because of his speed, route-running prowess and post-catch playmaking ability. In his sophomore year at Pitt, Addison won the Biletnikoff Award as the most productive receiver in college football, and he followed it up with a strong, but injury-shortened junior year at USC. In the shadow of the NFL's best receiver, Justin Jefferson, how valuable is the rookie wide receiver as a fantasy football option?
Team Situation
Minnesota lost 9-year starter Adam Thielen in free agency this offseason. Thielen received 90+ targets in six of those seasons, including each of the last three, when he became second fiddle to Jefferson. That's the role Addison is expected to assume, even as a rookie.
The Vikings were third in the NFL in pass attempts in 2022, and they also waived former All-Pro running back Dalvin Cook in the offseason. There's a chance the Vikings lean even more into the passing game, which benefits Addison's fantasy outlook for a couple of reasons.
First, at least 13 games on Minnesota's schedule are either indoors or in warm-weather cities early on in the season. They should rarely struggle to throw the ball.
Second, Kirk Cousins is a very dependable quarterback, with a completion percentage of nearly 68% since joining the Vikings. He also doesn't like to move around and improvise too much, preferring to get the ball into his receivers' hands quickly. Especially in PPR leagues, this bodes well for Addison's production.
While Justin Jefferson puts up monster production, he doesn't entirely hog the target share, in the red zone or otherwise. As the second option, Thielen still managed 30 total touchdowns over the last three seasons. I expect Addison to emerge as Cousins' clear-cut No. 2 option ahead of tight end T.J. Hockenson.
Player Profile
Jordan Addison is a highly-versatile receiver that can line up on the outside or in the slot; he even caught a 35-yard touchdown pass out of the backfield last year.
Addison's crisp route-running and sharp release helps him find space in the short to intermediate range in the middle of the field. Once he has the ball, he's very good at finding the next gear and picking up additional yardage.
His ability to get separation in short-yardage situations is very impressive, and it helps him find the end zone in red zone situations. One word of caution on this note is that Addison is pretty small for a receiver at the NFL level. While his release and contested-catch abilities were elite in college, he might struggle to separate himself in those areas against bigger, strong NFL defenders. Still, he will obviously be lining up against No. 2 cornerbacks and won't see double teams just because of the gravity Justin Jefferson commands anywhere on the field.
Comparison and Draft Value
Addison's size and skillset draw Devonta Smith comparisons. Smith caught 64 passes as a rookie for 916 yards and five touchdowns, but he blossomed into an elite receiver in year two — perhaps due to the addition A.J. Brown, who garners more attention from opposing defenses.
Currently, Addison's average draft position (ADP) is No. 92 overall and No. 38 for receivers in PPR leagues, per FantasyPros. That projects Addison as a low-end WR3, which I think is pretty fair for a rookie receiver.
Last year, Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave both exceeded the standard for first-round rookie WRs, racking up over 1,000 yards each, and they were still only in the high-end WR3 range. Even 6-foot-4 Drake London, a former Trojan and top-10 draft pick, finished as the No. 31 receiver (PPR) in his rookie year.
Keep in mind, this is a loaded rookie WR class. Four straight picks in the first round were receivers — Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison. Where Addison is available, there's a chance these other guys will be too. That's not to say you should draft all of them before drafting Addison, but it's just something to consider. For example, Johnston's frame and athleticism make him a dangerous deep threat and jump-ball threat in the red zone, so he might end up with more touchdowns.
If Addison fully assumes Thielen's target share, he should start putting up big numbers pretty fast. However, unless Addison finds a way to get in the end zone a lot, I see him having a mid- tier WR2 ceiling. Neither of these two contingencies is a given, so there's no guarantee he's viable starting option week after week.
Consider Addison a solid WR3 or secondary flex option. Finding the former Trojan in the later rounds to fill out the top end of the bench would be good value for a guy who was once awarded the title of the best wide receiver in college football.
