Will Justin Jefferson be the consensus No. 1 pick in 2023 fantasy football drafts? Justin Jefferson has been a revelation since entering the NFL in 2020. He has quickly established himself as one of the league's premier wide receivers and a top fantasy football asset. In 2022, Jefferson finished as the WR1 in PPR leagues, averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game. As we look ahead to the 2023 fantasy football season, Jefferson is once again expected to be one of the top picks in all formats.
Justin Jefferson's 2022 Recap
In 2022, Jefferson was a target monster for the Minnesota Vikings, averaging 10.8 targets per game. He finished the season with 120 receptions for 1,809 yards and 8 touchdowns. Jefferson's 28.6% target share was the highest on the team, and he also led the Vikings in air yards share (38.4%) and weighted opportunity rating (0.67). This was all done while receiving a ton of double and even sometimes triple coverage throughout the season.
2023 Fantasy Football Outlook for Vikings Justin Jefferson
Looking ahead to the 2023 season, Jefferson is expected to continue his dominance. The Vikings' addition of rookie Jordan Addison is designed to make their offense tougher for defenses to cover, but the Vikings figure to stay pass-heavy, meaning Jefferson's targets won't shrink much at all. Hopefully, with the addition of Addison, Jefferson will see a lot fewer double-teams which could result in higher numbers in yardage and touchdowns than he saw in last year's regular season.
Jefferson's per-game fantasy totals have gone up year over year and could potentially continue to rise in his fourth season, making the 24-year-old one of the safest elite picks you could make. In PPR formats, Jefferson is expected to be drafted as the No. 1 pick in most fantasy leagues this season.
The Minnesota Vikings' offense will ultimately revolve around getting Justin Jefferson the ball and it is very reminiscent of when Randy Moss burst onto the scene as a rookie in 1998. We know that Moss is a different animal than Jefferson but he is the closest thing to a Randy Moss that we've in quite some time, not only for the Vikings organization but for the sport of football in general.
He is able to dominate on the field and take over on any given day as we all remember the outrageous catch he had against the Buffalo Bills to help the Vikings come back to win that game in dramatic fashion. There are things like that, that can't be taught and he could be the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver yet again this upcoming football season.
Picking Jefferson with the No. 1 overall pick seems to be the safest bet you could possibly make next to possibly Ja'Marr Chase in your PPR league, but if you're in a half-point PPR or standard-scoring league you may want to look elsewhere with the top pick in your draft.
Predicting Justin Jefferson's 2023 Stats
As for predictions go for the upcoming 2023 NFL season, we have Justin Jefferson ending the season with 140 receptions, 1,900 yards, and 12 touchdowns. There should be no regression coming this year with the added weapons and getting more familiar with the offense in its second year Jefferson should make that leap coming into his fourth professional season.
We also have to factor in that unless the Vikings' defense got drastically better this offseason, which doesn't seem to be the case, the offense will need to go score for score with the opposing teams throughout the season much like they had to do in 2022.
With teams like the Lions and Bears in their division starting to put things together offensively they will need to do what they can through the air and on the ground to keep up with them in the season. We also can't discredit the Green Bay Packers who will be without Aaron Rodgers and with Jordan Love at the helm who may be able to open things up offensively that they weren't able to do with Rodgers in recent years.
With that said Justin Jefferson has quickly established himself as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL and a top fantasy football asset. He is expected to be the consensus No. 1 overall pick in all 2023 fantasy football drafts, to continue his dominance in the 2023 season, and is a safe elite pick in all formats. Expect big things and big stats for Justin Jefferson in his fourth NFL season. If you have the opportunity to draft Jefferson in your league, don't hesitate to make him your first-round pick as you will certainly have no regrets by season's end.