Relative to the calamity that was the 2021-22 season, the Los Angeles Lakers have high expectations for their 2022-23 campaign, which begins on Tuesday at the Chase Center against the defending champion Golden State Warriors.
There's a new coaching staff, fresh systems on offense and defense, and a younger supporting cast around LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook. Speaking of Russ, the nine-time All-Star — still at the center of trade talks — will likely open his 15th NBA season as a member of the bench unit (he's probable for the opener with a hamstring strain).
The health of LeBron and AD, the implementation of Darvin Ham's system, the buy-in Ham engenders from Westbrook, and the shooting prowess of the roster are the biggest questions facing this Lakers team. Their overall talent is limited, but the team is scrappier and more athletic than last year's veteran-laden group. They should, at the very least, play with more verve and defend better.
The Lakers' over/under is 43.5 wins, per FanDuel. They'll need ideal health from LeBron and Davis — and for Davis to consistently wreak havoc — in order to not only eclipse that figure but also contend in a deep Western Conference. As long as Westbrook is on the squad, they'll need him to embrace his “re-alignment” into a role player/sixth man to maximize the potential of the roster. A trade could shake things up at any moment.
Before the 75th season in franchise history tips off, let's make five bold predictions about the 2022-23 Lakers.
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5) Russ will embrace his new role — until he's traded
Westbrook coming off the bench is the best option for the Lakers and Russ. The fit with LeBron and AD will always be clunky (the new ABC), and Westbrook can now do what he does best — steer the ship, control the ball and tempo — against weaker second units.
The Lakers' apprehension about moving Russ to the bench is Westbrook's pride/ego and $47.1 million salary. Russ has verbally assured Ham, Rob Pelinka, and Jeanie Buss that he's genuinely willing to do whatever it takes to win. Let's see it. I think Westbrook will give Ham leeway he never gave Frank Vogel and positively embrace the opportunity to rebuild his value as a team-first super sixth man.
Westbrook doesn't really want to be on the Lakers anymore, and the Lakers would prefer to trade him. I still expect a deal before the Feb. 9 deadline. LeBron signing the extension put pressure on Pelinka to be aggressive on the trade market and shop Russ+the 2027/2029 picks. A Russ trade becomes eminently easier if a) he plays well b) various teams recalculate their agenda midseason and c) his contract becomes closer to expiration.
Until then, I'm expecting Westbrook to make himself useful — and not publicly sulk — about a reserve role. I could be dead wrong.
4) The Lakers will close with Austin Reaves, Patrick Beverley, and Juan Toscano-Anderson
There will be nights when Westbrook closes because he will occasionally be the Lakers' best point guard. Lonnie Walker IV and Kendrick Nunn — two preseason standouts and major X-factors — will be in the mix, too. However, surrounding LeBron and AD with Pat Bev, Reaves, and JTA gives Ham the best combination of defense, spacing, and versatility. I think this will, and should, be the go-to crunch-time lineup.
3) LeBron will play between 50-65 games
LeBron — who basically never got hurt through his first 15 years — has been more banged up than maybe the casual fan realizes since he joined the Lakers. A few of the injuries were fluky (see: Solomon Hill). On the other hand, he pulled a groin in 2017-18 that took months to heal. He missed eight games with a vague abdominal strain early in 2021-22. Then, after a high-flying night in Brooklyn, he woke up with a swollen knee which caused him to miss multiple weeks. In his one Lakers season in which he stayed healthy, 2019-20, he was afforded a four-month hiatus.
I'm certainly not wishing ill health on LeBron. But, just based on his odometer and recent track record, I have more faith in Davis staying on the court for 70+ games than I do LeBron. Remarkably, James remains one of the game's most dominant and consistent players — and the wisest — in Year 20, but he isn't the bionic, uber-explosive two-way force he was in the throes of his prime. He knows AD, ultimately, has to grab the keys, ASAP.
2) Anthony Davis will make an All-NBA team
Once again, I'm predicting AD to have a massive year. There's too much at stake for him to put forth another underwhelming campaign. It's time to dominate.
It's now or never if Davis wants to regain his stature as arguably the game's best big man, rivaling Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, and Joel Embiid. Ham is making him the centerpiece of the offense and the defense while encouraging him to shoot more 3s than ever. So far, AD's jumper — which apparently suffered from a wrist injury last year — has looked crisp.
It's an all-important, potentially legacy-defining season for Davis. I think he shows out. If all goes right, he'll lead the Lakers in scoring, rebounding, and blocks, advanced metrics across the board, and carry the load while managing his own. He should contend for Defensive Player of the Year and All-NBA First Team.
1) The Lakers will make the playoffs
The Western Conference is stacked. The Lakers seem to have a weaker roster than arguably eight teams: the Los Angeles Clippers, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Phoenix Suns, Memphis Grizzlies, Dallas Mavericks, Minnesota Timberwolves, and New Orleans Pelicans. They project to finish in the play-in range, in the class of teams such as the Sacramento Kings and Portland Trail Blazers.
I envision LeBron and AD determinedly carrying the Lakers into the postseason. Last year was not necessarily their fault, but the season itself was embarrassing. LeBron had to answer questions in March about if he was chasing meaningless scoring stats (which he did not like) while Davis watched in street clothes as his reputation — fair or unfair – took hits.
Some West team will underperform. Others mired in mediocrity will join the tankathon, which will only soften the Lakers' schedule. Pelinka should be able to find a Westbrook deal that improves their immediate depth.
There will be a window for the Lakers to squeeze into the postseason, probably via the play-in route. I'll pick the Lakers to win that game(s). LeBron has missed the postseason twice in four seasons as a Laker and bowed out in the first round once. Davis has only made the playoffs four times in his career. In 2021-22, the elderly Lakers opted against genuinely pushing for a play-in berth and wilted down the stretch. This year, if the Lakers are within earshot of the playoffs, I expect them to earnestly fight for it. 44-38.
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