With Selection Sunday complete and NCAA Tournament games imminent, the bracket permutations begin. While what we put on paper can become quickly irrelevant, picking Final Four teams correctly is often the difference-maker in bracket pools.
Which teams have the easiest roads to the Final Four? Find out here:
UConn
Earning the number-one overall seed comes with its perks, as the Huskies will like their chances in a region full of flawed contenders.
Three-seed Illinois is 93rd in defensive efficiency per KenPom. #4 Auburn is a top-five team in the NET Rankings and KenPom but had just one Quad I win heading into the SEC Tournament. Even then, the Tigers avoided Kentucky and Tennessee en route to the conference tournament title. As for Iowa State, since 1985, no top-two seed has ever started the season unranked (as ISU did) and reached the Final Four.
UConn's toughest matchup might come in the Second Round, as Northwestern and Florida Atlantic have proven they can beat elite opposition this season. Northwestern took down Purdue earlier in the year while FAU defeated Arizona. But get to the second weekend, and UConn will not feel intimidated by any teams standing between them and the Final Four.
Houston
As a one-seed for the second consecutive year, the Cougars have the best shot of any team to reach the Final Four at 56.2% (Per Bart Torvik) as they face a path of minimal resistance. Houston's biggest challenger is a Duke team that regularly employs six freshmen or sophomores — a hindrance against a veteran-laden Cougars squad.
The other top seeds in the South Region — Marquette, Kentucky, and Wisconsin — also have noticeable shortcomings. Marquette is a weak rebounding team (273rd in defensive rebounding rate) and five of its six worst defensive rebounding performances have resulted in defeats. Houston is among the top squads in the nation in offensive rebounding and should easily bully the Golden Eagles on the glass. As for Kentucky, despite the recent offensive improvement, the Wildcats are still not even in the top 100 in defensive efficiency and they struggle on the defensive glass.
Wisconsin is much-improved since the return of defensive stopper Kamari McGee, as the Badgers went 4-7 without him. But UW faces a difficult First Round test against upset-minded James Madison. While all these teams have a high ceiling, Houston's consistency separates them from these hot-and-cold squads as a Final Four contender.
Arizona
As the top #2 seed, Arizona will be confident despite losing two of its last three contests. Should the Wildcats get past Long Beach State, they would face the winner of Dayton and Nevada. Both teams have talented players but neither have the depth nor the balanced scoring to get past Arizona.
The Wildcats potential Sweet Sixteen opponents are also flawed. Clemson looks like an easy upset pick, leaving Baylor or New Mexico. Baylor is tied for fourth in the nation with 10 Quad I wins but the Bears have been iffy defensively (64th in ADJD, per KenPom). The top half of the West Region is wide open. UNC will face a physical Second Round game against either Michigan State or Mississippi State, making the Tar Heels easily the most vulnerable one-seed when it comes to an early exit.
UNC will have to survive a gauntlet if it wants to meet up with Arizona in the Elite Eight, making the Wildcats a strong Final Four pick.
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