The No. 11 seed Providence Friars (21-11) face the No. 6 seed Kentucky Wildcats (21-11) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Action tips off Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET.  Below we continue our March Madness odds series with a Providence-Kentucky prediction, pick, and how to watch.

Providence sputtered down the stretch as they've lost four of their last five games. The Friars covered 56% of their games while 53% went over the projected point total. Kentucky was rolling to end the year but they had an early exit in the SEC Tournament. The Wildcats covered 47% of their games while 63% went over. This will be the third all-time meeting between the two schools as Kentucky holds a 2-0 all-time advantage.

Here are the Providence-Kentucky March Madness odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

March Madness Odds: Providence-Kentucky Odds

Providence: +4.5 (-120)

Kentucky: -4.5 (-102)

Over: 144.5 (-110)

Under: 144.5 (-110)

How To Watch Providence vs. Kentucky

TV: CBS

Stream: Paramount+

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET/ 4:10 p.m. PT

*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Providence Could Cover The Spread

Providence started the season red-hot after going 8-3 in a tough non-conference slate. While they didn't pick up any big wins, they did battle with Miami, Saint Louis, and TCU. The Friars looked to be rekindling their magical 2021-22 run in Big East play after they started 9-2. Unfortunately, Providence sputtered down the stretch and doesn't look to be playing their best basketball. The Friars don't project well within the advanced metrics either, sitting at No. 45 in KenPom and No. 56 in NET.

Providence is an offensive-minded team who averages the 28th-most points per game in the country. While they don't do much from the outside, Providence excels at getting to the rim and forcing fouls from the other team. Their 16.4 free throws per game rank 20th in the country. Additionally, Providence is a strong rebounding team – specifically on the offensive end. The Friars hold the 19th-best offensive rebound rate in the country but will be hard-pressed against Kentucky's tough front line. Although Providence can struggle defensively, they do protect the rim well with the 30th-most blocks per game.

If you're looking for a storyline on the Providence side look no further than leading scorer Bryce Hopkins. Hopkins played sparingly for Kentucky last season before transferring to Providence this season. He's thrived in the Big East as he leads Providence with 16.1 PPG and 8.5 RPG. The 6'7″ sophomore has cooled off somewhat since his hot start but rest assured he will be locked and loaded against his former team.

The X-factor for Providence is sophomore guard Devin Carter. Carter ranks third on the team with 13.1 PPG but his efficiency can fluctuate. That being said, he has shown the ability to step up in big spots with 20-point games against Creighton and Marquette.

Why Kentucky Could Cover The Spread

Kentucky has had an incredibly up-and-down season but they finally looked to be figuring things out down the stretch. The Wildcats played a tough non-conference schedule that saw them drop games to Michigan State, Gonzaga, and UCLA. While they did take down Michigan, they otherwise didn't have much to show for their work out of the SEC. After a 1-3 SEC start, Kentucky rebounded down the stretch after taking down Tennessee twice. Additionally, they battled Kansas and looked to be trending up before losing two of their last three games to Vanderbilt. Nevertheless, Kentucky is viewed favorably by the advanced metrics as they sit at No. 28 in KenPom and No. 26 in NET.

Kentucky is a well-balanced team who relies on their athletes to form the issue on both sides of the ball. While they may not average a ton of points, the Wildcats are a streaky-strong offensive unit that ranks 14th in offensive efficiency. They are a dominant rebounding team who holds the third-highest rebound rate in the country. That bodes well for their chances of covering – especially on the offensive glass.

Kentucky is led by the reigning National Player of the Year, Oscar Tshiebwe. The 6'8″ senior is a load underneath as he leads the country with 13.1 RPG. Tshiebwe is a force on the offensive end as well, averaging 16.5 PPG while shooting 56% from the floor. With the potential for a 20-20 game, Tshiebwe gives Kentucky a massive advantage underneath as Providence will be hard-pressed to match up with him one on one.

Final Providence-Kentucky Prediction & Pick

Kentucky should cover this game with ease given the talent disparity. That being said, Providence is battled-tested after their Big East gauntlet. Throw in the X-factor of Bryce Hopkins against his former team and Providence is far too juicy to pass up here.

Final Providence-Kentucky Prediction & Pick: Providence +4.5 (-120)