The Miami Heat have accomplished a lot in their 2023 postseason run. With a 2-0 series lead against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals, they should be the favorite to advance to the NBA Finals.

Right?

Wrong, according to ESPN Analytics.

The projection model says the Heat have a 35 percent chance to win the series, even though they are going home for the next two contests.

ESPN's analytics have not been explained fully for what they track, but there is some information available.

Ben Alamar from ESPN Stats & Info said the system is derived from ESPN's Basketball Power Index. That predictor produces an offensive rating and defensive rating for teams, which come from inputting scores from every game.

There are adjustments then made in opponent quality, location, distance travelled, rest and preseason expectations. Awful Announcing has a story that explains more.

Miami has looked like a competitive, hard-nosed team. The Heat went on a 24-9 run to close Game 2 Friday night, leading to a 111-105 win.

There has only been one No. 8 seed to advance to the NBA Finals (the New York Knicks in 1999). If the Heat do the same, ESPN's Analytics would be dead wrong.

Already, the system is looking like it is.

Miami has been led by wing Jimmy Butler, who is playing like arguably the best in the world. He has averaged 31.1 points on 51.8 percent shooting along with 6.6 rebounds and 5.6 assists in 12 postseason games.

The Heat have a chance to take a 3-0 series lead Sunday at 5:30 p.m. If they win, will ESPN make them the favorite?