There is always one or two players who are unfairly undervalued in fantasy football drafts due to the uncertainty or downright ineptitude of their offense. Remember one important thing, though. Somebody has to catch the ball, even on an abysmal team. Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. was that guy last year with a declining veteran as his quarterback and could be again this year with a rookie likely under center.

Allen Robinson II, Terry McLaurin and a couple of others have earned a strong reputation in both NFL and fantasy football circles by producing in underwhelming situations. Pittman has been top-20 at his position in PPR leagues with Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan and Sam Ehlinger throwing him the pigskin the last two seasons. His adaptability makes him one of the more compelling and intriguing receivers in 2023.

Is the 25-year-old's rise in danger of being halted with a new quarterback, coach and offense coming into Indy? Let's sort it all out as best we can and take a closer look at Michael Pittman Jr.'s 2023 fantasy football outlook.

The fantasy football player

The 6-foot-4 product out of USC has not yet ascended into the upper echelon of NFL receivers, but he is already an established fantasy game-changer. He commands a huge chunk of targets- 129 in 2021 and 141 last year- and has the size to pull down a good amount of them. While there is room for improvement, Pittman has done an admirable job of producing in such a limited offense.

He tallied a career-high 99 receptions in 2022 but only earned 9.3 yards per catch, a precipitous decline from his 88 catches for 1,082 yards the year before (12.3). Touchdowns are not his strength, with him scoring less than five in two of his three seasons. Even if Anthony Richardson or Gardner Minshew play well, it is hard to fathom the Colts being a fixture in the red zone.

That means Pittman may remain a reception machine whose potential is capped by the pieces around him. There is reason to believe, however, that the key additions to this team can lead to a big jolt in the passing game.

The team and situation

Rookie QB Anthony Richardson is an enigma. His athleticism and speed has fantasy football managers salivating, but his passing could be a work-in-progress. The 21-year-old is set to start in Saturday's preseason opener against the Buffalo Bills, so he will have the opportunity to ease some of those qualms. Regardless, Michael Pittman Jr. should still be a stat compiler this upcoming season.

In fact, if Richardson does win the job over Gardner Minshew, then the offense could potentially open up more for Pittman. Defenses might have to adjust their entire game plan and protect against the scramble-happy quarterback. Thus, every player can benefit from the chaos he might bring.

A lot has to go right in order for Richardson to lead a viable NFL offense in his first year, but new head coach Shane Steichen was able to work some wonders with the Philadelphia Eagles. He does not need to craft the next Jalen Hurts. Competency will be enough for the Colts' top wide receiver to keep feasting on targets and possibly even reach the next level.

Michael Pittman Jr.'s 2023 fantasy outlook

There are a lot of questions surrounding this team. Jonathan Taylor's absence and potential departure could leave this offense in complete shambles. A lack of other weapons can allow defenses to hone in on Pittman and limit his ceiling. None of those possible roadblocks negate the fact that this wide receiver has a high floor, one higher than the No. 33 ranking FantasyPros has assigned him.

He is battle-tested and ready to push through more significant change. Reliability is an integral component of any winning fantasy football team. When doing pre-draft work, the focal points tend to be scheme, system and team culture. Although those are all crucial things to vet, Michael Pittman Jr. has already passed those rigorous exams.

You don't need to trust the Indianapolis Colts. Just trust this player to be a steady WR 3 for your team. All of the recent bad optics around this franchise only increase the chances that Pittman becomes a draft-day bargain.