Mike Evans is a model of consistency at the wide receiver position. No questions about it, he's on a Hall of Fame trajectory. In nine seasons, Evans has amassed 683 receptions for well over 10,000 yards and 81 touchdowns, and he's still just 29 years old. He's a four-time Pro Bowler and a Super Bowl champion with Tom Brady and the 2020-21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But now Brady is retired, and the Buccaneers are on the decline. With Baker Mayfield at quarterback, how much fantasy football value does Evans still have?

 

Team Situation

This is the biggest question mark for Evans' fantasy production. Obviously, Evans is still capable of playing and producing at an elite level, but he has to have the opportunity to do that. Someone has to get him the ball, and that someone is (probably) Baker Mayfield.

Across Mayfield's four seasons as a starting quarterback, only two receivers have racked up 1,000 yards in a season. Both Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. eclipsed the 1k mark in 2019 on the Cleveland Browns. However, those were literally the only receivers Mayfield threw to that season. Outside of the running backs, the next most targeted WR was Damion Ratley, who caught 12 passes in 13 games.

However, Mayfield was a former No. 1 pick, and I probably believe in him more than most do. So, it's possible for Evans to total some solid production, and I expect he will because he's such a great player, but his ceiling is probably lower than that of the 2018 season, for example, when he racked up over 1,500 yards and eight touchdowns.

Evans splits targets primarily with Chris Godwin, who is a good player in his own right, but is clearly the second option to Evans. The Buccaneers are in a weak division as well; only the New Orleans Saints are a challenging defensive matchup.

 

Player Profile

Mike Evans really doesn't miss many games; he averages 15 starts across his career and has never played less than 13 (2019). He gets banged up due to his physical style of play, but it's the NFL. Everyone is banged up by the midway point of the season. For fantasy football, Evans' consistency and availability are nice bonuses.

From a production standpoint, Evans delivers year after year. Of course, we have to include the stat everyone always includes when it comes to Mike Evans: his nine consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to start his career are the most in NFL history.

At 6-foot-4, Evans is as good a red zone/jump ball threat as there is in the NFL. His size and physicality make him a really tough matchup for any defensive back. You can't really jam him at the line of scrimmage, he has great contested catch ability, and he's difficult to bring down once he has the rock.

 

Projection and Draft Value

Over the last couple years, Evans' role in the Buccaneers offense has shifted, partly due to the addition of Tom Brady and then Brady's eventual decline in his last NFL season. Tampa Bay actually threw the ball a ton with 45-year-old Brady, but Evans received a smaller target share in each of the last three years. Without Brady, Tampa Bay will likely lean further into the ground game this season as well, pointing towards a further decline in his week-to-week production next year.

Even though Evans finished the season as the No. 17 WR last year (PPR), he actually only had three top-12 weeks. His final ranking was also dramatically bolstered by a Week 16 explosion, in which he caught 10 passes for 207 yards and three of his six total touchdowns. That was over 20% of his entire fantasy season. His Week 4 performance also accounted for another 14% of his season scoring. The rest of the year, he averaged just 11.4 ppg. Surprisingly, Evans only scored touchdowns in three games last year.

Evans has WR1 talent, but his limited top-end production and red zone output, coupled with the uncertainty of Tampa's quarterback situation and offensive potency, land Evans in low-end WR3 territory in 2023. I could see Evans finishing the year with WR2 total scoring given his durability, but don't rely on Evans to light up the scoreboard week in, week out as a starting WR.

The average draft position (ADP) for Evans is currently No. 74 overall and No. 31 amongst receivers in PPR leagues, per FantasyPros. I wouldn't recommend drafting Evans any higher than around WR No. 30, so this is reasonable value. From a dynasty-league perspective, Evans probably still has a few more years of being a quality NFL receiver. However, I would probably stay away from drafting Evans in a new dynasty league.