The Tampa Bay Buccaneers begin the 2023 season with a lot of uncertainty. We are here to share our NFL odds series, and make a Buccaneers over-under win total prediction and pick for the 2023 season.

The Buccaneers went 8-9 in 2022. Now, they will experience life after Tom Brady. Last season started promising as they went into Arlington and beat the Dallas Cowboys 19-3. Then, they beat the New Orleans Saints at the Superdome. But back-t0-back home losses to the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs soured their season. However, the Bucs beat the Atlanta Falcons before enduring a three-game losing streak. They won three of their next four games before suffering a massive loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Ultimately, the feeling of many was that they underperformed in Brady's last season.

Baker Mayfield was the only main addition for the Bucs in the offseason. Significantly, he tossed for 850 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions in limited action with the Los Angeles Rams. Brady is the major departure as he retired after 23 seasons in the NFL. Additionally, they released running back Leonard Fournette, who rushed 189 times for 669 yards on a meager 3.5 yards-per-carry rate with only three touchdowns. The Bucs also lost guard Shaq Mason and tackle Donovan Smith.

Here are the NFL Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NFL Odds: Over/Under Win Total Odds

Over 6.5 wins: +116

Under 6.5 wins: -142

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Why Tampa Bay Can Win 6.5 Games 

The Bucs still have plenty of weapons that can do damage. Yet, the key will be finding a way to get the ball to them. If the Bucs can do this, then they may be able to surprise a few people who expect them to stumble.

The Bucs still have one of the best wide receiver units in the NFL. Significantly, Mike Evans had another great season with 77 receptions for 1,124 yards and six touchdowns. Chris Godwin had 104 catches for 1,023 yards and three scores. Meanwhile, Russell Gage had 51 receptions for just 426 yards and five touchdowns. These three receivers can go with any unit and are a threat to break free at any moment.

The Bucs also have two of the best linebackers in the NFL. Therefore, expect them to keep going strong. Lavone David had 123 tackles in 2023. Likewise, Devin White finished with 124 tackles and 5.5 sacks for the Bucs. It is still tough to run against this unit.

The secondary is hit-or-miss. Ultimately, the Bucs will thrive if they can generate more turnovers. Carlton Davis is still an upper-tier cornerback. However, he needs to create more turnovers.

The Bucs will win seven games if the offense can keep the ball moving with their great receivers. Then, they need David and White to continue dominating on defense. Davis must improve on his end in the secondary.

Why Tampa Bay Can Not Win 6.5 Games

The biggest question in Tampa all starts with the quarterback position. Ultimately, all eyes will be on Mayfield. The former first-pick has struggled to stay consistent. Additionally, he has not maintained the same momentum he gained during his second season in the NFL when he led the Cleveland Browns to the playoffs. Mayfield must show that he is capable of leading a team to victory. Moreover, he must win over the Tampa Bay faithful. Mayfield struggled in stops in Charlotte and Los Angeles. Now, it is likely his last chance to show he can be a starting quarterback in the NFL.

But he will not have the same thriving offensive line that Brady had for the majority of his three years. Unfortunately, the Bucs lost Smith. Tristan Wirfs is the only real superstar left on the offensive line. Now, he will move over to the blindside. But the line will need to play well to give running back Rachaad White a chance to succeed. Significantly, White rushed 129 times for 481 yards with just one touchdown on a 3.7 yards-per-carry rate. He needs to do better.

The Bucs will not win seven games because Mayfield will once again fail to be a decent starter. Then, the line will struggle to protect him, and it will hurt White's performance in the backfield.

Final Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick

The only way the Bucs win seven games is if they can take advantage of their division and games against the NFC North. Unfortunately, the rest of the games will be tougher as they are division champs. The Bucs have a lot of work to do and I can see them taking a temporary slip down the ladder.

Final Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 6.5 wins: -142