The Houston Astros will travel to take on the Cleveland Guardians in the first of a four-game weekend series in Cleveland. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Astros-Guardians prediction and pick we have laid out below.
Houston is fresh off a series loss against the Boston Red Sox but still is in first place in the NL West with a 68-38 record. Despite going 4-6 in their 10 games, Houston still owns a commanding 11-game lead over Seattle. The playoffs are all but a guarantee at this point.
Cleveland was strangely stagnant at the trade deadline but is 54-50, just one game out of both the division and Wild Card races. Cleveland owns a 27-20 record at home, looking to improve their chances at a playoff spot.
Here are the Astros-Guardians MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Astros-Guardians Odds
Houston Astros: -1.5 (-126)
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (+105)
Over: 8 (-114)
Under: 8 (-106)
Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread
Houston has one of the best offenses in baseball, Yordan Alvarez has mashed 30 home runs, one of seven Astros with double-digit home runs, eight including deadline pickup Trey Mancini. Kyle Tucker has mashed 19 home runs while stealing an impressive 16 bases. Alex Bregman, despite an uncharacteristic .247 batting average, has walked and struck out even 56 times, good for a .353 on-base percentage. Houston is third in the league with an impressive 147 home runs. Their 184 doubles come in at a tie for eighth in the league.
On the mound, veteran Justin Verlander will look to continue the amazing season he has enjoyed. After missing most of 2020 and all of 2021, Verlander has a 1.81 ERA in his 19 starts. In his last seven starts, Verlander has a microscopic 1.59 ERA. On the road, Verlander has an impressive 1.72 ERA in 10 starts. Houston's team ERA sits at 3.01, good for second in the league. The bullpen has been even better, ranking first in ERA with a 2.76 mark. Houston's bullpen has struck out 9.8 batters per nine innings, the fourth-best rate in the league. Rafael Montero and Ryne Stanek both have ERAs below 1.75, serving as a lethal bridge to closer Ryan Pressley, who owns a 3.09 ERA with 21 saves.
Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
Cleveland is 6-4 in their last 10, keeping themselves afloat in the playoff race. The pitching staff is the easy strength of this team, with a 3.89 ERA ranking 15th in the league. Zach Plesac will be on the mound in this matchup, with his 4.33 ERA in 19 starts. Plesac is great at home, with a 3.02 ERA in his eight home starts. Cleveland's bullpen is one of the better operations in baseball, ranking eighth with a 3.45 ERA. Trevor Stephan, Enyel De Los Santos, and Nick Sandlin are an envious bridge to closer Emmanuel Clase. Clase has been dominant at the end of games, with a 1.22 ERA and 23 saves.
At the plate, things are not as bright for Cleveland. Jose Ramirez, now a long-time Guardian, has done nothing but rake this season, hitting 21 home runs with a .285 batting average. Ramirez has impressively walked more than he has struck out. Josh Naylor has added 14 home runs, while Andres Gimenez has established a new career high with 12 home runs. While Cleveland ranks seventh with a .252 batting average, that has come without much power, as their 84 home runs are second lowest in the league.
Final Astros-Guardians Prediction & Pick
Verlander has given us no reason to bet against him this season.
Final Astros-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Astros -1.5 (-126), under 8 (-106)
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